Analyst(s): Alex Smith
Publication Date: October 3, 2025
How established tech companies are resurging, big tech performance and shifts in cloud power balance fueled by AI infrastructure and strategic pivots.
What is Covered in this Article:
- Nvidia, Micron Technology, Super Micro Computer, Broadcom, and Samsung posted double-digit year-over-year revenue growth for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ending Q3 2025, but each is seeing decelerating momentum compared to the previous TTM period.
- AMD, HPE, Dell, Oracle, Apple, Cisco, and IBM all reported accelerating revenue growth in the latest TTM period, with AMD leading this group at 27.2% year-over-year growth.
- Core software and platform companies including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Adobe, SAP, ServiceNow, Salesforce, and Intuit maintained stable revenue growth and momentum in the period.
- HP and Intel saw low or negative year-over-year growth, but their revenue momentum remained stable relative to recent quarters.
- Among the Vanguards, revenue growth rates and momentum shifts reflect a mix of trends across semiconductors, hardware, cloud, and software sectors for the trailing twelve months through Q3 2025.
AI Infrastructure Shifts the Cloud Power Balance
The headlines this quarter once again center around surging growth rates for the companies supplying critical infrastructure to cloud hyperscalers such as Nvidia, Micron, and Super Micro Computer. Growth rates remain very strong for these critical AI infrastructure suppliers, and while momentum has slowed, overall spending remains rampant. Meanwhile, there has been a quiet resurgence of some of the industry’s long-standing established companies. This includes companies like AMD, HPE, Dell, Oracle, Apple, Cisco, and IBM which are not only turning in strong revenue numbers but are also driving the next phase of cloud and AI’s evolution through strategic pivots, partnerships, and in some cases, shockingly bold bets.
Figure 1: Futurum Tech Vanguards, Q3 2025, Trailing Twelve Months YoY Revenue Growth
Subscriptions, AI Stories, and the New Platform Wars
Broadly across the industry a few common themes emerge. First, every company is now selling an AI story. Whether it is foundational model chips, AI data center networking, SaaS AI agents, or consumer device integrations, there’s no credible path to growth without a strategy anchored in artificial intelligence. And it may be less about monolithic infrastructure deals and more about embedding AI into products and subscriptions; something even Apple is excelling at, with record-breaking services revenue offsetting hardware slowdowns.
Second, the platform and subscription model is king. From Dell and HPE’s as-a-service infrastructure to Apple’s digital services bundles and IBM’s growing software annuities, the companies outpacing the market aren’t just shipping hardware; they’re building sticky, recurring revenue streams with AI at the core.
Third, the market is hedging. Even as Nvidia’s vision of the AI Factory becomes reality, big clouds and big customers are no longer betting everything on a single infrastructure or cloud provider. Multi-cloud, hybrid-cloud, and disaggregated infrastructure models are becoming mainstream, and every major tech player is maneuvering to capture a bigger slice of the AI value chain, often through partnership and creative capex arrangements.
Oracle’s Big Bet: The OpenAI Deal and a New Era of Cloud Competition
Across the Vanguards, Oracle deserves a special focus. Its landmark deal to host OpenAI’s Stargate project on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) sent shockwaves through the industry. For years, Oracle was seen as a cloud laggard, but this partnership cements its status as a viable alternative to AWS, Azure, and Google; at least for the biggest workloads. However, the move is not without risk. Oracle does not have the same financial might as the other hyperscalers, and its willingness to become the capital expenditure spender for AI superprojects is a double-edged sword. Oracle’s high debt position and its reliance on a still-volatile startup ecosystem could make its balancing act precarious if demand or funding conditions shift. Oracle’s big bet of late contrasts fellow cloud provider Microsoft, which is showing some relative signs of caution by pursuing cloud commitment deals with NeoClouds and other hyperscalers rather than purely investing in its own infrastructure. The sustainability of this capex arms race is up for debate.
What to Watch:
The notion of unlimited Capex and insatiable AI demand has never been more vulnerable to challenge. Oracle’s big leap may inspire other non-traditional cloud providers to chase mega-customers by taking on more financial risk. But as hyperscalers manage their capital outlays, the market will need other customer types to pick up the slack. The last quarter has shown that the AI opportunity is trickling out beyond the obvious benefactors. Technology companies across the landscape are reinventing themselves as the backbone of the next phase of the AI and cloud revolution; one where platform, partnership, and financial agility may matter just as much as raw growth.
Disclosure: Futurum is a research and advisory firm that engages or has engaged in research, analysis, and advisory services with many technology companies, including those mentioned in this article. The author does not hold any equity positions with any company mentioned in this article.
Analysis and opinions expressed herein are specific to the analyst individually and data and other information that might have been provided for validation, not those of Futurum as a whole.
Other insights from Futurum:
Micron Q4 FY 2025 Earnings Top Estimates on DRAM and HBM Strength
Broadcom Q3 FY 2025 Earnings Beat Estimates Amid AI Semi Acceleration
HPE Q3 FY 2025 Results Mark Record Sales, ARR Growth, and Server Momentum
Author Information
Alex is Vice President & Practice Lead, Ecosystems, Channels, & Marketplaces at the Futurum Group. He is responsible for establishing and maintaining the Channels Research program as part of the overall Futurum GTM and Channels Practice. This includes overseeing the channel data rollout in the Futurum Intelligence Platform, primary research activities such as research boards and surveys, delivering thought-leading research reports, and advising clients on their indirect go-to-market strategies. Alex also supports the overall operations of the Futurum Research Business Unit, including P&L segmentation, sales and marketing alignment, and budget planning.
Prior to joining Futurum, Alex was VP of Channels & Enterprise Research at Canalys where he led a multi-million dollar research organization with more than 20 analysts. He played an integral role in helping the Canalys research organization migrate into Omdia after having been acquired in 2023. He is an accomplished research leader, as well as an expert in indirect go-to-market strategies. He has delivered numerous keynotes at partner-facing conferences.
Alex is based in Portland, Oregon, but has lived in numerous places, including California, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and the UK. He has a Bachelor in Commerce and Finance Major from Dalhousie University, Halifax Canada.
