From AI PCs to Copilot+ PCs: H1 2024 Summary

The PC segment has been struggling for several years now, and for several reasons. The first and most glaring among them in recent quarters was the result of a perfect storm of pandemic-related effects that can be summarized as a combination of overbuying and supply chain friction that resulted in bloated inventories and exerted downward pressure on demand. The second was simply that incremental performance and UX improvements in the PC space weren’t enough to generate excitement or positively impact refresh cycles, either in the commercial or the consumer segments.

This changed at the start of H2 2024, with the coordinated launch of Copilot+ PCs by Microsoft and the company’s PC OEM partners in June – namely Acer, Asus, Dell, HP, Lenovo, and Samsung – all of which joined the Microsoft Surface team in delivering an entirely new category of PC for the age of on-device AI. For reasons I will outline in this snapshot report, the introduction of powerful AI PCs – and specifically the new Copilot+ PC category – is widely expected to kickstart a refresh of the supercycle for the PC segment as early as this year.

A first wave of AI-capable PCs, powered by Intel processors had timidly entered the market in time for the 2024 cycle, but didn’t offer much in terms of overall system performance improvements or standout on-device AI features. I wouldn’t go so far as to call it a false start for the AI PC category, but it would be fair to say that this first wave of AI PC failed to make a strong market case for the category. Key lessons to be learned from that soft launch were twofold: for the AI PC category to be successful – and beyond that, for the AI PC category to begin replacing pre-AI PCs – the value proposition of AI PCs would have to be clear, and the category would need some kind of structure or framework that commercial and consumer PC customers would understand. Both of these objectives were successfully addressed by the coordinated launch of the Copilot+ PC category in June.

How Copilot+ PCs began to bring order and clarity to the AI PC segment in Q2

The value proposition side of the challenge was solved on two equally important fronts: System performance improvements and new AI use cases, both of which hinged on a system requirement for any AI PC to be considered for inclusion in the Copilot+ ecosystem: 40+ TOPS (trillions of operations per second) on the NPU (neural processing unit). This specific benchmark was, first and foremost, a UX primer, as Microsoft wanted to ensure that PCs branded Copilot+ would be able to handle heavy AI workloads without monopolizing CPU and GPU resources. It was also a battery performance and thermal envelope play, as Microsoft also wanted Copilot+ PCs to deliver all-day to multi-day battery life, and not become uncomfortably hot when running thermally expensive workloads. Qualcomm’s new Arm-based Snapdragon X PC platform was uniquely designed to deliver these exact performance characteristics, which helps explain why every Copilot+ PC launched in June was powered by the Snapdragon X platform. (More on that in a moment.)

Microsoft’s 40+ TOPS NPU rule established a new performance tier for AI PCs (and the PC segment in general), both for AI workloads and overall system performance. This is an important point as the value proposition of Copilot+ PCs resting on both of these parallel tracks addresses two critical categories of questions for PC buyers: (1) How does an AI PC differ from a traditional PCs (and why should I care)? and (2) Are there advantages to upgrading to a Copilot+ PC aside from new AI use cases?

As the proverbial “killer AI app” that would clearly answer the first of these questions remains nebulous this early in the AI PC cycle, it was imperative for Copilot+ PCs to have a good answer to the overall system improvement question. While each implementation of the Snapdragon X platform in the Copilot+ ecosystem is unique, Microsoft demoed their Copilot+ Surface products at their launch event, pitting them against the M3 MacBook Air, and made the case for Copilot+ delivering faster workloads, better multithreaded performance, and better battery life.

Microsoft addressed the market clarity challenge posed by the new AI PC category by creating an entirely new category with Copilot+ PCs – a clearly branded framework – for Windows-based AI PCs. Had Microsoft not accomplished this, I believe that the AI PC category would have been a lot more chaotic and difficult for PC buyers to navigate, with wildly different performance characteristics between AI PCs. The Copilot+ PC category brings order to the ecosystem.

Looking to Q3/Q4: How fast will AMD and Intel join Qualcomm in the Copilot+ ecosystem?

The initial Copilot+ PC launch was exclusively centered around Qualcomm’s Arm-based Snapdragon X Elite and Snapdragon X Plus PC platforms. Snapdragon X, like Apple silicon, takes advantage of Arm architecture’s outstanding performance per watt, finally making it possible for Windows PCs to deliver Apple-like system performance to PC users – a goal that Microsoft had been pursuing for years. This was especially important for Microsoft’s product roadmap for Surface, but for Windows on Arm to scale, it was critical that major PC OEMs also get on board, which they did. As previously mentioned, Acer, Asus, Dell, HP, Lenovo, and Samsung joined Microsoft and all released an impressive collection of Copilot+ PCs powered by Snapdragon X chipsets, most – if not all – of which have captured the attention of PC retailers in the consumer segment, and of PC buyers in the enterprise.

Here is a comprehensive list of every Copilot+ PC launched in that first wave in June:

Powered by Snapdragon X Elite

• Acer Swift 14 AI
• Asus Vivobook S15
• Dell Inspirion 14
• Dell Inspirion 14 Plus
• Dell Latitude 7455
• Dell XPS 13
• HP EliteBook Ultra
• HP OmniBook X
• Lenovo ThinkPad T14S
• Lenovo Yoga Slim 7x
• Microsoft Surface Laptop 13
• Microsoft Surface Laptop 15
• Microsoft Surface Pro
• Samsung Galaxy Book4 Edge (16”)
• Samsung Galaxy Book4 Edge (14”)

Powered by Snapdragon X Plus

• Acer Swift 14 AI
• Asus VivoBook S15
• Dell Latitude 5455
• Dell Latitude 7455
• Dell Inspirion 14 Plus
• Microsoft Surface Pro
• Microsoft Surface Laptop 13

While it may be a few more months before we can share definitive numbers about how enthusiasm for Snapdragon-powered Copilot+ PCs has already translated into orders, early market indicators are generally positive, with retailers hinting at impressive pre-order numbers. Prism emulation for Windows also helped Microsoft solve the vast majority of Windows-on-Arm compatibility concerns that might have otherwise hindered adoption, but what is also encouraging for the platform is the speed with which major software vendors, including Adobe, have begun to focus on both Windows-on-Arm compatibility and optimizing solutions to make the most of the NPU.

Windows-on-Arm Copilot+ PCs aside, what about Copilot+ PCs powered by Intel and AMD processors? The simple answer is that they are coming. Microsoft was careful to include both AMD and Intel in their June launch announcement, during which they explained that they were working with both chip companies to integrate them into the Copilot+ ecosystem as fast as possible. While the exact timing of that integration isn’t crystal clear, we can infer from adjacent announcements by AMD, Intel, and the PC OEM ecosystem at this year’s Computex conference in Taipei that it will happen in the next four to eight months.

Zooming in on this a bit, AMD introduced its new AI PC chips (namely its Ryzen AI 300 processors) at Computex, followed by PC OEM announcements highlighting their upcoming AMD-powered AI PCs launching in H2 2024. While some PC OEMs previewed these AMD-powered AI PCs as Copilot+ PCs, others were a bit more cautious with their presentations and introduced them as AI PCs while hinting at the fact that they would, at some point post-launch, be folded into the Copilot+ ecosystem. Reading between the lines, we can reasonably infer that all AMD-powered AI PCs delivering 40+ TOPS on the NPU will be included in the Copilot+ PC ecosystem as soon as Microsoft and AMD are ready to flip that switch, which could happen as early as Q4 2024 but probably no later than Q1 2025.

Intel, for its part, appears to be lagging behind rivals Qualcomm and AMD a bit, but plans to launch its Lunar Lake AI PC platform in the fall, with shipping expected in H1 2025. We haven’t yet seen any Lunar Lake-powered Copilot+ PC announcements from any PC OEMs, suggesting that Intel may not work its way into the Copilot+ ecosystem until sometime next year.

Lastly, while Apple has accelerated its focus on AI use cases and has also begun injecting some AI features into its products, consensus is that it does not yet have a PC product comparable to Copilot+ PCs with regard to on-device AI capabilities and performance. My read on this is that Apple often waits one, two, even three cycles before entering the market with features first introduced by competitors, so the question isn’t so much if Apple will release more AI-forward MacBooks to compete against Copilot+ PCs but when.

Navigating silicon diversity in the AI PC segment in H2 2024 and beyond

The Copilot+ PC category promises to elevate the AI PC segment through significant overall system performance and on-device AI performance, but one of the more interesting aspects of this evolution is the new silicon diversity being injected into the PC segment. On the one hand, AMD and Intel continue to make the x86 platform relevant even in the age of AI PCs. On the other hand, Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X platform brings Arm-based silicon into the Windows PC space, allowing the Windows ecosystem to go head-to-head with Apple’s MacBook portfolio.

The market ramifications of this new silicon diversity equation deserve a deeper dive than what this snapshot analysis allows, but here are a few things to think about:

1. Thanks to Snapdragon X Copilot+ PCs, Windows PC OEMs can now go head to head with Apple in both the consumer and commercial segments, where they can legitimately compete on system performance, style, battery life, and price, to say nothing of on-device AI capabilities.
2. With AMD and Intel-based Copilot+ PCs on the way, PC OEMs will also be able to serve the needs of their customers, both in the consumer and commercial segments, who still prefer x86 to Arm, or who look for specific specs and configurations best suited to their individual needs.
3. We will likely see Qualcomm, AMD, and Intel find their lanes in the Copilot+ ecosystem, and leverage them to establish their own unique value propositions. Based on how PC OEMs are already positioning some of their first Copilot+ PCs, we can already see how PCs designed for professional content creators and serious gamers may favor the higher horsepower of the AMD platform while PCs designed for road warriors and hybrid workers might favor the all-day battery life of the Snapdragon platform. These lanes should become much clearer once Intel enters the Copilot+ ecosystem.
4. While Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm-based Copilot+ PCs will likely result in more SKUs for PC OEMs, the silver lining of that potential inventory headache for them is that having more options to choose from will serve PC customers well. This will be important as the value proposition of Copilot+ PCs becomes clearer and the refresh cycle driven by Copilot+ PCs begins to accelerate into H2 2025. A broader portfolio means more choice, and every PC OEM I have spoken with sees this as a net positive for them and their customers.
5. Microsoft is ensuring that no matter what platform powers Copilot+ PCs, every AI PC in the ecosystem will deliver outstanding performance and consistent UX – a very important quality safeguard for all Windows PC users across all segments.

Additional considerations for AI PCs in H2 2024: Making good on the promise of on-device AI disruption

Right now, if PC OEMs appear to be focusing their value proposition messaging on the system performance advantages of Copilot+ PCs rather than on their AI capabilities, it is because the case for moving AI workloads on device remains somewhat light on clear real-world examples. While Snapdragon X Elite PCs are already capable of securely running generative AI LLM models of over 13 billion parameters right on the device rather than in the cloud, most PC users aren’t going to be taking advantage of that right away, let alone know how. The app layer needed to facilitate this type of on-device (or hybrid) use case still needs to be fleshed out a bit.

Similarly, AI assistant and agent integration into popular apps, from Excel and PowerPoint to Adobe premiere Pro and DaVinci Resolve, for example, could take a little time to find their paces with users who just aren’t used to having embedded AI helpers handle workloads for them.

In other words, the AI assistant and AI agent functionality that Copilot+ PCs promise to unleash into our workspaces is the next piece of the AI PC value proposition that the ecosystem needs to start delivering tangibly and at scale in the next few quarters. The sooner PC users are able to shrink hours of work into minutes by using on-device AI assistant and generative AI integration, the sooner the Copilot+ PC category will become a must-have for every PC user looking to either boost their productivity or become more efficient with their time.

While an obvious selling point in the consumer segment, this will be particularly important in the commercial segment, as IT departments and the organizations they serve begin to quantify the competitive advantages (and ROI) of enabling the types of productivity gains that Copilot+ PCs promise to deliver to their workforce. Add to this equation the potential cost savings of moving some proportion of their generative AI training and inference workloads out of the cloud and onto in-house devices, and the data security advantages of doing so, and suddenly, the value proposition of Copilot+ PCs’ on-device AI capabilities becomes a much more effective driver of adoption at scale than system performance improvements alone.

As the Copilot+ PC ecosystem’s first wave of adoption finds its rhythm in Q3 and Q4, look for the tangible, real-world on-device AI use case examples and tutorials to start breaking through alongside the performance-focused and “future-proofing for AI” messaging that we already see from PC OEMs and their platform partners. Microsoft could take the lead here, and use this opportunity to shine a light on how AI is transforming productivity across its solutions ecosystem. However, with the developer ecosystem already hard at work trying to build the first real killer app for Copilot+ PCs, we could see the first batch of disruptive use cases for on-device AI solutions integration enter the market between now and the end of Q4.

Disclosure: The Futurum Group is a research and advisory firm that engages or has engaged in research, analysis, and advisory services with many technology companies, including those mentioned in this article. The author does not hold any equity positions with any company mentioned in this article.

Analysis and opinions expressed herein are specific to the analyst individually and data and other information that might have been provided for validation, not those of The Futurum Group as a whole.

Other Insights from The Futurum Group:

The Copilot+ PC Disruption Is Here: What Happens Now?

The PC Segment’s AI Inflection Point: Your 2024-2025 Copilot+ PC Cheat Sheet

HP’s New OmniBook Ultra 14-inch Next Gen AI PC Promises a Whopping 55 TOPS on the NPU

Author Information

Olivier Blanchard

Research Director Olivier Blanchard covers edge semiconductors and intelligent AI-capable devices for Futurum. In addition to having co-authored several books about digital transformation and AI with Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman, Blanchard brings considerable experience demystifying new and emerging technologies, advising clients on how best to future-proof their organizations, and helping maximize the positive impacts of technology disruption while mitigating their potentially negative effects. Follow his extended analysis on X and LinkedIn.