The Six Five team discusses NVIDIA creating Arm-based SOC.
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Transcript:
Daniel Newman: This week, I mean, the hottest news in tech was that NVIDIA is planning… And they said something about AMD, but I almost don’t even want to talk about it because I’m having a hard time believing that one. But NVIDIA is kind of going to lean in, go all in on Arm-based PC.
Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, it was funny, a big Stephen Nellis out of Reuters leak, and it was exactly what you said. It essentially said NVIDIA’s going to go Windows on Arm. To me, this is one of the worst-kept secrets and rumors. And let me step back. The original Windows 8 and the original Surface actually had an NVIDIA SoC in it. Now there were three brands in it at the time. It failed miserably. Microsoft had a billion-dollar write-off, but NVIDIA is not an unknown to Arm. In fact, they’ve ported all of their CUDA libraries over to Arm, and they tried to buy Arm unsuccessfully because China just was a non-answerable.
Daniel Newman: It wasn’t just China.
Patrick Moorhead: Right. What came out of that, though, is they got an Arm architecture license, right? Now, I don’t know… Actually, I don’t think this is something that is a custom core where they had an arch license. I think they’re taking the Grace Superchip and modifying it for gaming and workstations. Okay? That’s my take, which I think was different from the Reuters Nellis case. And then I’m thinking of, well, games are X86 for the most part, and this is why Apple is terrible at real PC gaming. And so are workstation apps, like DeSo as an example, all of these certified applications. So this is something, if it truly is gaming and workstation, NVIDIA and even Microsoft will have to take care of. I did want to hit on the AMD rumor.
Daniel Newman: Okay, it’s all you.
Patrick Moorhead: AMD doesn’t need Arm. Let me just put it out there. X86 can be low power if it’s architected and tested, just like we saw Arm can be very high performant as long as it’s architected like that and has the proper ecosystem. Now, if a semi-custom… If a customer went to AMD and said, “I want you to build this chip for me,” and in Xbox and PlayStation AMD creates a custom… I know it’s confusing. It must be confusing, both semi-custom and custom. But they build, and they have done this for a decade, special chips for game consoles. Let’s say Microsoft asked them to do something; I think that they would deliver. And I think if Microsoft wanted to create its own PC SoC or something like that, I think their first partner they would look at would be AMD because they’ve got over a 10-year relationship on creating custom silicon with the company. That’s it. That’s all I got, buddy.
Daniel Newman: Well, listen, the rumor created a lot of interest, and then therefore for us, it gave us a chance to comment. And that comment gave us a chance to opine and get attention, and we like that. NVIDIA is the hottest company in AI. Can we agree on that? I mean, maybe Microsoft would be the next in line and then Google, but NVIDIA stole the-
Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, I have to caveat with data center AI, yes.
Daniel Newman: But I mean, no companies made more money, gained more market share, or got more attention in the media than NVIDIA for this year. Jensen’s been on every stage in the planet and sure does great media and creates great fodder to talk about what NVIDIA is going to do. Like you said, it’s probably the worst-kept secret in a long time that NVIDIA wanted to do more with Arm, and it’s already doing CPUs with Arm. So that’s not actually true; it’s not new. Of course, it’s a top-down strategy. They’re doing very high performant. And could they move down into more, like you said, into a workstation or into maybe even a mobile PC like what Qualcomm is doing? And of course, the answer is maybe. And directionally, with the way Arm architectures work and the IP blocks and licensing, does NVIDIA have the resources and cash to do it if they want to? Would their relationships with OEMs potentially translate? I think they could, but the truth is…
And we’ll talk about this maybe, because Pat Gelsinger, what he inferred too in our comment today. But look, it takes time. We didn’t really say this in the Qualcomm comments about Snapdragon, but they’ve been at this seven years. And yes, the designs are better, but building sell-in and sell-out meaningfully in these channels is not… It’s not a marginal activity. It’s substantial. It’s material. It’s a big active role that these companies have to take. And this channel is littered with people who have gotten very used to certain mechanisms of going to market, including backend dollars that make it work for their businesses.
Will NVIDIA just be able to come to market and everybody’s just going to want it? I don’t know. I think gaming. I mean, what I keep thinking is gaming. A gaming device is probably where it’ll end up happening. It’s not going to be the end of Intel no matter how much people want it to be, but it sure does make for great TV.
Author Information
Daniel is the CEO of The Futurum Group. Living his life at the intersection of people and technology, Daniel works with the world’s largest technology brands exploring Digital Transformation and how it is influencing the enterprise.
From the leading edge of AI to global technology policy, Daniel makes the connections between business, people and tech that are required for companies to benefit most from their technology investments. Daniel is a top 5 globally ranked industry analyst and his ideas are regularly cited or shared in television appearances by CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal and hundreds of other sites around the world.
A 7x Best-Selling Author including his most recent book “Human/Machine.” Daniel is also a Forbes and MarketWatch (Dow Jones) contributor.
An MBA and Former Graduate Adjunct Faculty, Daniel is an Austin Texas transplant after 40 years in Chicago. His speaking takes him around the world each year as he shares his vision of the role technology will play in our future.
