Analyst(s): Keith Kirkpatrick, Nick Patience
Publication Date: January 30, 2025
Microsoft’s Q2 FY 2025 earnings report highlights continued momentum in cloud and AI-driven growth, fueled by a surge in commercial bookings and strong enterprise adoption of Azure AI. However, heightened capital expenditures for AI infrastructure expansion weighed on margins.
What is Covered in this Article:
- Microsoft’s Q2 FY 2025 financial results and revenue growth
- Impact of record-high AI infrastructure investments
- The surge in commercial bookings was driven by AI and cloud commitments
- Azure AI’s role in Microsoft’s cloud strategy and enterprise adoption trends
The News: Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) reported $70 billion in revenue for the quarter, reflecting a 12% year-on-year (YoY) increase and surpassing consensus estimates by 1.2%. Microsoft Cloud revenue grew 21% YoY to $41 billion, though gross margins moderated to 70% (Q2 FY 2024: 72%) due to the scaling of AI infrastructure. Operating income rose 17% YoY to $32 billion, while the operating margin declined to 17.1% from 25.3% in Q2 FY 2023. Net profit climbed 10% YoY to $24 billion, exceeding analyst expectations by 3.7%. Additionally, diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 10% YoY to $3.20.
“We are innovating across our tech stack and helping customers unlock the full ROI of AI to capture the massive opportunity ahead,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and CFO of Microsoft. “We remain committed to balancing operational discipline with continued investments in our cloud and AI infrastructure.”
Microsoft Q2 FY 2025: Cloud and AI Strength Offset Margin Pressures from Rising Capex
Analyst Take: Microsoft delivered solid cloud and AI-driven revenue growth in Q2 FY 2025, fueled by rising commercial bookings and broader Azure adoption. However, higher capital expenditures (capex) for AI infrastructure and data center expansions put some pressure on margins. This reflects Microsoft’s aggressive investment strategy to stay ahead in the AI space, reinforcing its commitment to leading AI-driven workloads. CEO Satya Nadella was positive on the earnings call about the types of software optimization advances apparently made by DeepSeek of China, pointing out that there’s no point in launching frontier models that are too expensive to run. To emphasize that, Microsoft announced that DeepSeek R1 is already available via Azure AI Foundry & GitHub and will soon be available on CoPilot Plus PCs.
Massive AI Infrastructure Investments to drive growth
Microsoft, alongside Amazon and Google, is making its largest-ever capital expenditures (Q2 FY 2025: $22.6 billion), primarily aimed at scaling AI data centers and securing GPU supply. The company reaffirmed its $80 billion AI-focused capex target for FY 2025, a significant jump from previous years. While this investment is crucial for maintaining AI leadership, Wall Street is beginning to question the long-term ROI of such heavy spending. The emergence of cost-efficient, open-source AI models like DeepSeek’s has raised concerns over whether expensive proprietary infrastructure will remain a competitive advantage. Despite this, Microsoft remains confident that enterprise demand for premium AI services will continue to grow. With Azure AI at the center of its strategy, the company is betting that its deep integration with Microsoft 365, Dynamics, and GitHub will drive AI adoption, making its cloud ecosystem essential for businesses. As Nadella put it on the earnings call, “And so when token prices fall, inference computing prices fall, that means people can consume more, and there’ll be more apps written.”
Commercial Bookings Surge, Driven by AI and Cloud Commitments
Microsoft reported a 67% year-over-year increase in commercial bookings, a significant jump from the 30% growth seen in Q1 FY 2025. Management credited this surge to large-scale Azure AI commitments and the renewal of long-term contracts for Microsoft Cloud services.
The company now holds nearly $298 billion in commercial service contracts that have not yet been recognized as revenue. This growing backlog represents a strong pipeline of future revenue, highlighting customers’ deep, long-term commitments to Microsoft’s AI and cloud offerings. Management also pointed out that an increasing share of these contracts is tied to AI workloads, reflecting strong enterprise confidence in Microsoft’s AI-powered cloud infrastructure.
Azure AI Monetization to Expand with Enterprise Adoption
Microsoft Azure’s Q2 FY 2025 revenue grew 31% YoY in constant currency, landing at the lower end of its 31%-32% guidance, reflecting continued supply constraints impacting AI infrastructure scaling, which the company said should be resolved by the end of the current fiscal year in June. AI services contributed 13 percentage points to Azure’s growth, highlighting increasing enterprise adoption of OpenAI-powered workloads. Azure consumption is expected to accelerate in H2 FY 2025, driven by Microsoft’s efforts to secure additional GPUs and expand cloud capacity. While AI workloads on Azure continue to rise, adoption of Microsoft’s 365 Copilot has been slower, largely due to high per-user costs. In response, Microsoft introduced a usage-based pricing model to enhance affordability and increase adoption rates. As OpenAI’s preferred cloud provider, Microsoft stands to benefit from rising enterprise and consumer demand for AI solutions. Nadella expressed himself “very happy with the partnership with OpenAI. Increased AI adoption is expected to drive higher Azure sales, further reinforcing its position as a leading AI cloud platform.
Looking ahead
Microsoft’s AI-first strategy continues to fuel strong revenue growth, but balancing heavy investments with profitability is the challenge. With its $80 billion AI-focused capex plan for FY 2025 still in place, the company is making a long-term bet on cloud dominance. As more GPUs and data center capacity come online, AI workloads are expected to scale further, strengthening Microsoft’s position as a leader in enterprise AI adoption.
In addition, Microsoft is positioning itself as a platform that will enable the development and deployment of AI that can be used in an assistive capacity across various use cases, verticals, and workflows and handle work autonomously. Positioning itself as a platform vendor will enable Microsoft to capture revenue from various sources while generating additional stickiness within enterprise customers.
Read the full press release on Microsoft’s website.
Disclosure: The Futurum Group is a research and advisory firm that engages or has engaged in research, analysis, and advisory services with many technology companies, including those mentioned in this article. The author does not hold any equity positions with any company mentioned in this article.
Analysis and opinions expressed herein are specific to the analyst individually and data and other information that might have been provided for validation, not those of The Futurum Group as a whole.
Other insights from The Futurum Group:
Microsoft Ignite 2024: Transforming Enterprises with AI Innovations
Microsoft Q1 FY2025 Earnings: Record Growth Driven by AI and Cloud Services
AI Agent and Hybrid Architecture: What It Means for Software Development
Author Information
Keith has over 25 years of experience in research, marketing, and consulting-based fields.
He has authored in-depth reports and market forecast studies covering artificial intelligence, biometrics, data analytics, robotics, high performance computing, and quantum computing, with a specific focus on the use of these technologies within large enterprise organizations and SMBs. He has also established strong working relationships with the international technology vendor community and is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and events.
In his career as a financial and technology journalist he has written for national and trade publications, including BusinessWeek, CNBC.com, Investment Dealers’ Digest, The Red Herring, The Communications of the ACM, and Mobile Computing & Communications, among others.
He is a member of the Association of Independent Information Professionals (AIIP).
Keith holds dual Bachelor of Arts degrees in Magazine Journalism and Sociology from Syracuse University.
Nick is VP and Practice Lead for AI at The Futurum Group. Nick is a thought leader on the development, deployment and adoption of AI - an area he has been researching for 25 years. Prior to Futurum, Nick was a Managing Analyst with S&P Global Market Intelligence, with responsibility for 451 Research’s coverage of Data, AI, Analytics, Information Security and Risk. Nick became part of S&P Global through its 2019 acquisition of 451 Research, a pioneering analyst firm Nick co-founded in 1999. He is a sought-after speaker and advisor, known for his expertise in the drivers of AI adoption, industry use cases, and the infrastructure behind its development and deployment. Nick also spent three years as a product marketing lead at Recommind (now part of OpenText), a machine learning-driven eDiscovery software company. Nick is based in London.
