Analyst(s): Steven Dickens
Publication Date: October 25, 2024
IBM’s Q3 2024 results reveal strong growth in the Software segment, driven by a 10% increase in revenue, attributed mainly to Red Hat and AI solutions. The company’s generative AI business grew by over $1 billion, and operational efficiency boosted profit margins. However, a 7% decline in the Infrastructure segment presents challenges, mainly due to a significant drop in IBM Z mainframe sales. IBM’s continued focus on AI and hybrid cloud solutions positions it for future growth, though addressing the weakness of infrastructure remains a priority.
What is Covered in this Article:
- IBM’s Q3 2024 earnings performance, with a focus on revenue growth and profit margins.
- Breakdown of IBM’s key segments: Software, Infrastructure, and Consulting.
- The impact of AI and Red Hat products on IBM’s growth strategy.
- Use cases of IBM’s Red Hat and AI products driving customer efficiency and cost reduction.
- Challenges IBM faces in the infrastructure and consulting segments.
- How IBM’s strategic focus on AI and hybrid cloud can affect future growth.
The News: IBM’s Q3 2024 earnings demonstrate growth in its Software segment, with a 10% revenue growth primarily driven by Red Hat (up 14%) and the company’s expanding AI portfolio. IBM’s generative AI book of business grew by over $1 billion this quarter, contributing to its solid software revenue of $6.5 billion.
Despite this success, the company faced headwinds in its Infrastructure segment, which saw a 7% decline, primarily due to a sharp drop in IBM Z mainframe sales. IBM’s consulting business remained flat, reflecting challenges in certain areas such as technology consulting. Improved operational efficiency boosted the company’s gross profit margin to 56.3%, while free cash flow for the quarter reached $2.1 billion. As IBM moves into the fourth quarter of the year, it remains focused on AI and hybrid cloud solutions to sustain growth.
IBM Q3 FY 2024 Earnings Deliver Strong Software Growth
Analyst Take: IBM has turned the corner over the last few quarters and is now consistently posting growth, albeit in the low single digits. This return to a consistent growth trajectory is starting to reflect in the company’s share price. A particular highlight among this return to growth has been IBM’s Q3 2024, which achieved a 10% revenue increase in the Software segment, led by Red Hat and AI solutions, highlighting IBM’s positive pivot to higher-margin, scalable offerings. The growth in its generative AI book of business, surpassing $3 billion, clearly indicates the demand for its software and AI offerings.
In a recent Six Five Webcast, Rob Thomas, Chief Commercial Officer at IBM, highlights the company’s strategic approach to AI by building a comprehensive AI stack for B2B clients to improve productivity across industries. The stack includes model orchestration, AI middleware, and application-focused solutions, emphasizing driving rapid ROI, as demonstrated by a case with Vodafone, where AI integration improved productivity by 99% within five weeks.
Thomas also emphasizes IBM’s “customer zero” strategy, in which all AI innovations are first deployed internally to pressure test scalability and usability. This has led to $2 billion in cost savings through HR, procurement, and supply chain management automation.
The company’s growth tailwinds include a 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in its generative AI order book and the continued growth of Red Hat. IBM’s combined technology and consulting approach, including solutions such as Granite 3.0, Watsonx, and InstructLab, positions it well to capitalize on enterprise AI adoption.
However, headwinds persist, particularly in IBM’s core cyclical business areas such as IBM Z, where declining revenues create unwarranted concern by the ill-informed.
Red Hat and the Growing Influence of AI Leading the Charge
IBM’s Software segment highlights AI’s growing influence in driving revenue. Software revenue increased by 10%, with significant contributions from Red Hat (up 14%), Automation (up 13%), and Data & AI (up 5%). AI’s integration into software platforms and the $3 billion generative AI book of business (up more than $1 billion quarter to quarter) showcase IBM’s strategy of leveraging emerging technologies to offer more efficient, fit-for-purpose solutions at lower costs.
IBM’s AI solutions provide cost benefits and efficiency improvements through use cases such as supply chain optimization, customer service automation, and predictive maintenance. For example, AI-powered demand forecasting helps retailers reduce excess inventory and optimize logistics, while AI-driven chatbots automate customer service, cutting labor costs and improving resolution times.
In manufacturing, IBM’s predictive analytics enable real-time equipment monitoring, preventing costly downtime by predicting maintenance needs. These applications streamline operations, reduce costs, and enhance decision-making, making IBM’s offerings highly competitive across industries. However, challenges in consulting (flat revenue) and infrastructure (down 7%) suggest that these segments are still adjusting to the current market demands, such as the cyclical downturn in IBM Z sales.
Behind IBM’s Revenue and Software Growth
For Q3 2024, IBM reported a total revenue of $14.96 billion, reflecting a modest 1% year-over-year growth (or 2% when adjusting for constant currency). The company’s Software segment represented the primary driver of revenue growth, reporting a 10% year-over-year increase to $6.5 billion. Within this segment, specific sub-segments such as Hybrid Platform & Solutions grew by 10%, with Red Hat recording a 14% increase, Automation rising by 13%, and Data & AI achieving a 5% increase. However, the security segment slightly underperformed, with a 1% decline.
IBM’s CEO, Arvind Krishna, highlighted the momentum in AI, citing the company’s generative AI book of business, which grew by over $1 billion to reach $3 billion in total. This growth is attributed to IBM’s approach to developing trusted, fit-for-purpose AI models that are cost-effective while leading in performance.
IBM helps its customers cut costs through Software and AI offerings. For example, Red Hat OpenShift enables companies such as BMW to modernize their IT infrastructure and scale applications efficiently, while IBM Watson helps firms such as Woodside Energy analyze vast data sets to enhance decision-making and lower risks. Additionally, automation tools such as Ansible reduce manual IT tasks, as seen with Intuit, driving operational efficiency and cost savings. These solutions are central to IBM’s ability to deliver strong performance in AI and hybrid cloud environments, fueling its software growth.
Profit Margins and Cash Flow
IBM achieved a gross profit margin of 56.3% under GAAP, marking an improvement of 190 basis points compared to the same period in 2023. The company’s gross profit margin was 57.5% on a non-GAAP basis, up 210 basis points. This improvement was primarily driven by the shift in IBM’s revenue mix toward higher-margin software and operational efficiency efforts across the organization. The continued focus on productivity initiatives enabled IBM to extract greater value from its operations.
In terms of profitability, IBM posted a GAAP pre-tax loss of $802 million, which reflects the impact of a $2.7 billion one-time, non-cash pension settlement charge related to the transfer of a portion of its U.S.-defined benefit pension obligations to a third-party insurer. This resulted in a net loss of $330 million for the quarter. However, on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes the pension settlement and other adjustments, IBM reported a pre-tax income of $2.5 billion, representing an 8% year-over-year increase. The company’s non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $2.30, up from $2.20 in the same quarter of 2023.
IBM’s cash flow generation remains strong, with the company reporting $2.1 billion in free cash flow for the third quarter, up $0.4 billion year-over-year. Year-to-date, the company has generated $9.1 billion in net cash from operating activities and $6.6 billion in free cash flow, positioning it well to meet its full-year free cash flow target of over $12 billion.
AI and Future Growth
IBM’s focus on AI provides an optimistic outlook for the company. It has made significant strides in establishing itself as a leader in AI, particularly with its generative AI offerings. Krishna noted that IBM’s AI models are gaining traction due to their cost-effectiveness and performance leadership. The company’s AI solutions are tailored for enterprise use cases, differentiating them from more general-purpose AI models that may not be as effective in specific business environments.
Looking ahead, IBM expects fourth-quarter revenue growth to be consistent with Q3 levels, supported by continued strength in the software segment and sustained momentum in AI. The company’s confidence in achieving its full-year free cash flow target is bolstered by its operational efficiency improvements and strategic investments in high-growth areas such as AI and cloud computing.
Challenges and Risks
Despite IBM’s positive performance in software and AI, the company faces several challenges in maintaining its growth trajectory. In the infrastructure segment, particularly IBM Z, revenues were down 19% YoY. To provide context, the z16 is 10 quarters into its lifecycle, and in previous generations, the drop-off in revenue has been more pronounced. With the Telum II and Spyre accelerator for AI, the mainframe franchise has a robust outlook, but I expect Q1 to be challenging next year. Additionally, the consulting segment’s flat growth raises concerns about the company’s ability to capture value in a highly competitive market for digital transformation services.
IBM also faces broader macroeconomic risks, including client spending budgets and currency exchange rates fluctuations. The company has noted that currency fluctuations could present a headwind of approximately 0.5 percentage points to revenue growth in the fourth quarter.
Looking Forward
IBM’s Q3 2024 earnings highlight the company’s positive shift toward software and AI-driven growth, with significant progress in expanding its AI business book and improving profit margins. The continued strong performance in the software segment, combined with the company’s efforts to drive operational efficiency, positions IBM well for future growth. However, challenges remain in the infrastructure and consulting segments, and the company must navigate macroeconomic risks and competitive pressures to sustain its growth trajectory.
Read the full press release on the IBM website.
Daniel Newman and his co-host of The Six Five Webcast, Patrick Moorhead of Moor Insights and Strategy discusses IBM’s earnings in their latest episode. Check it out here and be sure to subscribe to The Six Five Webcast so you never miss an episode.
Disclosure: The Futurum Group is a research and advisory firm that engages or has engaged in research, analysis, and advisory services with many technology companies, including those mentioned in this article. The author does not hold any equity positions with any company mentioned in this article.
Analysis and opinions expressed herein are specific to the analyst individually and data and other information that might have been provided for validation, not those of The Futurum Group as a whole.
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Author Information
Regarded as a luminary at the intersection of technology and business transformation, Steven Dickens is the Vice President and Practice Leader for Hybrid Cloud, Infrastructure, and Operations at The Futurum Group. With a distinguished track record as a Forbes contributor and a ranking among the Top 10 Analysts by ARInsights, Steven's unique vantage point enables him to chart the nexus between emergent technologies and disruptive innovation, offering unparalleled insights for global enterprises.
Steven's expertise spans a broad spectrum of technologies that drive modern enterprises. Notable among these are open source, hybrid cloud, mission-critical infrastructure, cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and FinTech innovation. His work is foundational in aligning the strategic imperatives of C-suite executives with the practical needs of end users and technology practitioners, serving as a catalyst for optimizing the return on technology investments.
Over the years, Steven has been an integral part of industry behemoths including Broadcom, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and IBM. His exceptional ability to pioneer multi-hundred-million-dollar products and to lead global sales teams with revenues in the same echelon has consistently demonstrated his capability for high-impact leadership.
Steven serves as a thought leader in various technology consortiums. He was a founding board member and former Chairperson of the Open Mainframe Project, under the aegis of the Linux Foundation. His role as a Board Advisor continues to shape the advocacy for open source implementations of mainframe technologies.
