Analyst(s): Olivier Blanchard
Publication Date: April 10, 2025
Intel confirmed that its next-generation client CPU platform, Panther Lake, will begin production later in 2025, with volume supply planned for early 2026. These chips will be the first to use Intel’s advanced new 18A process node, incorporating RibbonFET and PowerVia technologies as part of Intel’s 5N4Y roadmap. CEO Lip-Bu Tan reiterated Panther Lake’s strategic importance and positioned the product as the foundation for a broader reset across Intel’s product, foundry, and innovation strategy.
What is Covered in this Article:
- Intel’s Panther Lake CPU platform targets late 2025 production using the 18A process node
- Risk production milestone achieved for 18A; volume ramp planned in 2026
- Panther Lake blends the performance of Arrow Lake with the efficiency of Lunar Lake
- Intel’s competitive position hinges on the delivery of 18A and traction in foundry and AI PCs
The News: Intel announced that its upcoming Panther Lake processors will begin production in H2 FY 2025, with a broader volume supply expected in early 2026. Panther Lake will be Intel’s first client CPU product built on the new 18A process node, which includes RibbonFET gate-all-around transistors and PowerVia backside power delivery. The company also confirmed that 18A has officially entered risk production, a key milestone indicating the process has been frozen and is being scaled up for high-volume manufacturing. Intel plans to use Panther Lake as the launch vehicle for 18A, with a total of five chiplet-based dies per processor.
Can Intel’s Panther Lake and 18A Process Reset the Chipmaker’s Competitive Position?
Analyst Take: Intel’s announcement of risk production for 18A and a firm timeline for Panther Lake signals encouraging progress in its recovery roadmap, and suggests that Intel could be closing the competitive gap created by Qualcomm and AMD in 2024, with their early entry into Copilot+ class capabilities in the AI PC segment.
18A Risk Production Is the First Real Test of Intel’s Roadmap Credibility
Intel’s 18A node marks a critical inflection point for Intel after years of lagging process leadership. The company’s entry into risk production indicates it has frozen the process technology and is now moving toward scaling for customers.
Unlike test chip runs, risk production involves pressing wafers with a single chip design into low-volume manufacturing, allowing real-world validation of tools, yields, and manufacturing flows. Intel must now transition from this phase to full-scale, high-volume production later this year, aligning with the Panther Lake schedule. This transition will test whether Intel can finally deliver on what is left of its “five nodes in four years” mission – an objective first set in motion under Pat Gelsinger and now culminating in 18A. Panther Lake will be the proving ground for 18A’s manufacturability and a crucial signal to both foundry clients and investors.
Panther Lake as a Strategic Pivot: Architecture, Efficiency, and Market Positioning
Panther Lake is more than a typical generational refresh – it combines the performance of Arrow Lake and the power efficiency of Lunar Lake into a hybrid CPU aimed at the mobile market. With a 6+8 configuration of new Cougar Cove P-Cores and Skymont E-Cores, alongside up to 12 Xe3 GPU cores using the Celestial architecture, Panther Lake reflects Intel’s re-commitment to leading-edge design. The chips will be packaged in a five-die chiplet layout and span thermal design power (TDP) from 15W to 45W, targeting a wide range of mobile SKUs.
This will also be the first true Core Ultra 300 product and a major AI PC milestone in the company’s edge-to-client strategy for AI use cases. The emphasis on new packaging, graphics, and AI integration also aligns Panther Lake as a critical bridge to Nova Lake, scheduled for late 2026.
Lip-Bu Tan’s Engineering Reset: Culture Overhaul and Talent Rebuild
New CEO Lip-Bu Tan has made Panther Lake and the 18A process the centerpieces of Intel’s execution reset. At Intel’s Vision 2025 keynote, Tan reaffirmed that Panther Lake will (must) ship on 18A later this year, and declared weekly reviews with engineering teams to track progress. This will be the first major product under his leadership, and its success will be critical to the restoration of Intel’s roadmap credibility. Tan’s “underpromise and overdeliver” approach contrasts sharply with past cycles of missed timelines, making this milestone a litmus test for both his leadership and Intel’s ability to reset under completely different operational principles.
Tan’s turnaround playbook draws from his tenure at Cadence, where disciplined execution, IP-led growth, and cultural reform drove a shift from low-single-digit to double-digit revenue growth. Now at Intel, Tan is already prioritizing talent retention, hands-on technical engagement, and first-time-right delivery to reverse execution lapses that plagued past nodes, but a ship the size of Intel isn’t quick to change course. Despite being absolutely spot on about what to do and how, overcoming operational inertia in the coming months could be Tan’s trickiest challenge.
One key insight to keep in mind between now and 2026 is that the stakes for 18A and Panther Lake are not just operational – they are also symbolic of Intel’s ability to recover its position as a process and product leader. Intel’s ability to execute on Tan’s vision will form the basis for whether or not – and how quickly – the market and investors find their way back to a healthy degree of confidence in Intel’s ability to finally get out of its own way and make up for lost time.
AI and Foundry Focus: Execution Still Lags, but Traction Is Critical
Intel’s broader strategy includes aggressive moves in the AI PC segment, where it may have already begun to lose market share to AMD and Qualcomm, as well as a renewed push for foundry scale through Intel Foundry Services (IFS).
This is particularly time-sensitive as Intel’s core business segments – Client Computing and Data Center – continue to face market-share erosion and margin pressure, with limited catalysts for a positive turnaround expected before Panther Lake’s late-2025 launch.
The ramp-up of 18A must therefore serve both internal products and external customers to meet the company’s Integrated Device Management (IDM) 2.0 strategy goals. Intel’s foundry credibility is also being tested in parallel with Altera monetization efforts and over $10 billion in cost-saving initiatives. While Intel’s technical achievements with RibbonFET and PowerVia give 18A a theoretical lead, success will ultimately rest on delivering consistent yield, process maturity, and ecosystem engagement.
What to Watch:
- Foundry customers will expect consistent delivery on performance, cost, and quality metrics – any shortfall in 18A timelines could deter design wins and external tape-outs.
- Panther Lake’s market impact depends on its ability to deliver clear performance-per-watt advantages against AMD and Apple silicon, especially in mobile SKUs.
- Continued AI integration must align with software ecosystem support; delays in enabling AI workloads at the edge may limit Intel’s PC-side differentiation.
- Rising global trade restrictions or retaliatory tariffs on chip components could disrupt Intel’s supply chain, raising costs or delaying key customer shipments.
- See the complete press release on Intel’s Vision 2025 and Panther Lake updates on the Intel website.
Disclosure: The Futurum Group is a research and advisory firm that engages or has engaged in research, analysis, and advisory services with many technology companies, including those mentioned in this article. The author does not hold any equity positions with any company mentioned in this article.
Analysis and opinions expressed herein are specific to the analyst individually and data and other information that might have been provided for validation, not those of The Futurum Group as a whole.
Other insights from The Futurum Group:
The Six Five Pod | EP 255: From Intel to Innovation: Pat Gelsinger’s New Ventures
HPE and Intel – Building Future-ready Compute Platforms Together
Author Information
Research Director Olivier Blanchard covers edge semiconductors and intelligent AI-capable devices for Futurum. In addition to having co-authored several books about digital transformation and AI with Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman, Blanchard brings considerable experience demystifying new and emerging technologies, advising clients on how best to future-proof their organizations, and helping maximize the positive impacts of technology disruption while mitigating their potentially negative effects. Follow his extended analysis on X and LinkedIn.
