Analyst(s): Ron Westfall
Publication Date: September 11, 2024
The News: T-Mobile, Verizon, Ericsson, GSA, and Opensignal Show Why 5G FWA is Critical to Reducing the Digital Divide and Boosting Competition
5G FWA market progress in August 2024 demonstrated why the technology is vital to stimulating broadband connectivity competition and fulfilling society-wide goals of bridging the digital divide. In 2024, shipments of FWA CPE are expected to grow 23% to reach 37.5 million units. See this August-issued GSA 4G–5G FWA Forum survey for more information. In the US, 5G FWA has made substantial inroads with T-Mobile continuing to lead the market. See this T-Mobile update for more information. In the North American region, 100% of service providers offer speed-based FWA, with 80% offering it over 5G. See the Ericsson Mobility Report update for more information.
5G FWA Takes Mobile Ecosystem Spotlight in August 2024
Analyst Take: In August 2024, 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) has seen significant growth and can be viewed as a mainstream technology that is integral to major ecosystem-wide goals such as reducing the digital divide and stimulating broadband connectivity competition. 5G now represents 42% of all FWA customer premise equipment (CPE) shipped in 2024, according to the GSA 4G/5G Fixed Wireless Access Forum.
In the US, the 5G FWA has made substantial inroads across the broadband landscape with 933,000 new customers adopting the rapidly growing service in April to June Q2 2024 (reported in August). T-Mobile continues to lead the FWA market with impressive growth with Q2 net adds of 406,000, bringing its overall subscriber count to 5.587 million. Verizon reported Q2 net adds of 378,000, bringing its overall subscriber count to 3.8 million. AT&T’s FWA offering AT&T Internet Air, launched in August 2023, is gaining ground with 139,000 net adds in Q2 to reach 350,000 total subscribers.
This expansion is fueled by the rising adoption of 5G-enabled CPE devices and the strategic efforts of operators to capitalize on their 5G network investments, enabling swift expansion of their 5G FWA coverage. In my view, such data demonstrate that 5G FWA is integral to advancing society-wide broadband connectivity on a global basis, laying waste to skepticism about its long-term market viability and ability to compete against fixed wireline services such as fiber and cable HFC.
4G–5G FWA Forum Validate Key 5G FWA Advances
The focus of the GSA 4G–5G FWA Forum is to inform and educate the broadband ecosystem about the FWA market segment. Due to a lack of market information and limited consensus about the volume of FWA device shipments and FWA installed base globally, the GSA has been conducting its annual FWA CPE market survey to address these information and data gaps. It was first conducted in 2021, and the latest report issued in August 2024 presents the findings of the 2024 survey, where data was collected from April to July 2024. A total of 30 vendors of customer-premises equipment (CPE) from the GSA 4G–5G FWA Forum answered the survey.
The big takeaway is that 5G-enabled FWA shipments have become mainstream, reaching 10.2 million in 2023. The growth of 5G FWA CPE shipments is expected to accelerate further, accounting for 42% of shipments in 2024 compared to 34% in 2023. By comparison, 4G FWA CPE shipments fell 5% between 2022 and 2023. Less than half of respondents will introduce a new 4G CPE product this year.
Key highlights included that shipments are led by indoor CPE, which accounts for 60%, followed by battery-operated hot spots at 25% and outdoor CPE at 15%. Within the outdoor CPE segment, flexible self-install devices are projected to increase from 1.6 million to 1.9 million units, maintaining roughly one-third of the category’s shipments. I find that the uptick in self-install shows that 5G FWA installations are becoming increasingly streamlined indicating swifter adoption rates.
From my view, this trend is reinforced by 5G standalone inroads. Specifically, 60% of shipments in 2023 supported the technology. These are expected to grow in 2024, reaching 8.9 million units, up from 6 million in 2023. Unlike 5G Non-Standalone (NSA), which depends on existing 4G infrastructure, 5G Standalone (SA) operates with a dedicated 5G core. This enables faster speeds, lower latency, and increased capacity, directly benefiting the 5G FWA use case.
5G FWA Use Case Strengthens
The introduction of 5G SA brings significant enhancements to network service quality, primarily as 5G FWA offers better spectral efficiency than earlier technologies such as 4G/LTE and WiMAX. 5G FWA has shown that it can offer several advantages, including more affordable pricing compared to wireline alternatives, leveraging existing mobile retail channels and subscriber bases, alongside providing a broadband service that meets essential needs.
In my perspective, 5G FWA has directly benefited from improvements in signaling and CPE advances, including the use of Massive MIMO (Multiple-Input Multiple-Output), which enables the simultaneous transmission and reception of multiple data signals over the same radio channel. Also, the integration of beamforming techniques enables a wireless signal to be directed specifically toward a household’s modem, enhancing signal strength and minimizing interference.
The Opensignal U.S. Household survey reported that nearly three quarters of FWA subscribers pay less than $75 a month for their broadband services, compared to only 60.4% of cable subscribers. Moreover, average 5G download speeds have almost tripled since Q1 2021, when T-Mobile started reporting on its FWA subscription numbers, and have seen gradual and steady quarterly increases.
In my perspective, the progress of US mobile operators such as T-Mobile and Verizon and successfully managing FWA traffic in other parts of the world can be attributed to an array of factors, including greater access to mid-band spectrum, localized load management, and differences in peak usage time of day patterns between mobile and FBB usage.
What to Watch:
The advances reported in August 2024 show 5G FWA has become integral to strategic business objectives of mobile service providers. From 130 million at the end of 2023, FWA connections worldwide are projected to increase to 330 million by the end of 2029, according to the update of the Ericsson Mobility Report. This represents 18% of all fixed broadband connections. Of the 330 million projected connections, close to 85% are expected to be over 5G.
FWA adoption is widespread worldwide, with more than 80% of service providers offering FWA in four out of six regions. Specifically, 54 out of 128 service providers with 5G FWA offerings are in emerging markets, representing 42% of all global 5G FWA service providers (as of April 2024).
I concur with the Ericsson FWA and 5G FWA projections as they align and re-affirm the market and technical trends reported by third-party organizations such as GSA 4G/5G Fixed Wireless Access Forum and OpenSignal. Taken together, the availability of more spectrum suitable for 5G FWA, ease of deployment, cost advantages, improving performance, and flexibility deployment compared to fixed wireless alternatives affirms that 5G FWA has proven its naysayers wrong and will continue to gain valuable mind and market share across the global broadband ecosystem.
Disclosure: The Futurum Group is a research and advisory firm that engages or has engaged in research, analysis, and advisory services with many technology companies, including those mentioned in this article. The author does not hold any equity positions with any company mentioned in this article.
Analysis and opinions expressed herein are specific to the analyst individually and data and other information that might have been provided for validation, not those of The Futurum Group as a whole.
Other insights from The Futurum Group:
MWC24: Qualcomm Turbocharges 5G FWA with AI-Infused Ultra Gen 3
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Author Information
Ron is an experienced, customer-focused research expert and analyst, with over 20 years of experience in the digital and IT transformation markets, working with businesses to drive consistent revenue and sales growth.
Ron holds a Master of Arts in Public Policy from University of Nevada — Las Vegas and a Bachelor of Arts in political science/government from William and Mary.
