Austin, Texas, USA, November 5, 2026
Nick Patience, VP & Practice Lead, AI Platforms at Futurum, shares new data showing Claude overtaking GPT in AI model adoption, 68.7% to 62.4%, as the AI market heads to $5,301.9B by CY2030.
According to Futurum Research’s newly released 2H 2026 AI Platforms Decision Maker Survey (n=511 organizations building AI applications and assessing models), Anthropic Claude has overtaken OpenAI GPT in AI model adoption. Claude is in use and continues to be used by 68.7% of companies in September 2026, up from 20.6% in March 2025, while GPT was little changed at 62.4%. Futurum’s new 2H 2026 AI Platforms Market Sizing & Five-Year Forecast shows the market those models feed growing from $642.3 billion in CY2025 to $5,301.9 billion by CY2030 in the Base case.
Figure 1: Anthropic Claude Overtakes OpenAI GPT in Production
Nick Patience, VP & Practice Lead, AI Platforms at Futurum, said, “AI model adoption has been reordered in under 18 months. Claude rose from 20.6% to 68.7% among builders, while GPT stood still, so enterprises are choosing models based on the work they need done, not on who arrived first. Leadership at this level is defended account by account, and with most buyers running more than one provider, the order can change again.”
The forecast puts the global AI market at $642.3 billion in CY2025 and $5,301.9 billion by CY2030, a 52.5% CAGR (see Figure 2). Every scenario grows: the Bull case reaches $6,203.1 billion and the Bear case $4,325.1 billion, still a 46.4% CAGR. Models & Model APIs, the submarket where Claude and GPT compete for paid usage, grows 280.8% in CY2026 and reaches $147.2 billion by CY2030.
Figure 2: AI Market Heads to $5.3 Trillion by 2030
The research reveals several key developments shaping AI model adoption and spend:
- Multi-model is the norm: 59.9% of model users run more than one provider in production; only 9.8% rely on one.
- Clouds sell the models: 64.0% procure foundation models through a cloud provider, up from 58.1% in March 2025.
- Momentum follows usage: Anthropic posts the highest ML/AI vendor Net Score, 77.8, of 17 vendors tracked.
- Revenue still sits with OpenAI: It leads Models & Model APIs at $5.0 billion in CY2025; OpenAI and Anthropic together hold 43.3% of the submarket.
Adoption and revenue are measured differently and do not move in step. OpenAI still books the most Models & Model APIs revenue, but the order behind it has changed every year, and Claude’s lead among builders suggests where AI model adoption is heading. Growth in the submarket also slows after CY2026, to 12.2% by CY2030, as price per unit of capability falls and open-weight models take routine work.
“Cheaper tokens have not reduced demand,” said Patience. “Agents multiply tokens per task, so AI model adoption turns into spend faster than seat counts suggest. The vendors that win the next phase will make model choice, routing, and cost control a default, because buyers already run several models and switch when the value is not there.”
For vendors, the two datasets point the same way. Spend across the AI stack keeps compounding in every scenario, while the share any single model family holds can change within a year. AI model adoption is now won on value delivered in production, not on first-mover position.
Subscribers can read more in the full reports, “2H 2026 AI Platforms Market Sizing & Five-Year Forecast” and “2H 2026 AI Platforms Global Enterprise Decision Maker Survey Report,” on the Futurum Intelligence Platform. Non-subscribers click here for more information.
About Futurum Intelligence for Market Leaders
Futurum Intelligence’s AI Platforms IQ service provides actionable insight from analysts, reports, and interactive visualization datasets, helping leaders drive their organizations through transformation and business growth. Subscribers can log in to the platform at https://app.futurumgroup.com/, and non-subscribers can find additional information at Futurum Intelligence.
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At GTC Berlin, NVIDIA Puts the AI Factory in an Actual Container
Author Information
Nick Patience is VP and Practice Lead for AI Platforms at The Futurum Group. Nick is a thought leader on AI development, deployment, and adoption - an area he has researched for 25 years. Before Futurum, Nick was a Managing Analyst with S&P Global Market Intelligence, responsible for 451 Research’s coverage of Data, AI, Analytics, Information Security, and Risk. Nick became part of S&P Global through its 2019 acquisition of 451 Research, a pioneering analyst firm that Nick co-founded in 1999. He is a sought-after speaker and advisor, known for his expertise in the drivers of AI adoption, industry use cases, and the infrastructure behind its development and deployment. Nick also spent three years as a product marketing lead at Recommind (now part of OpenText), a machine learning-driven eDiscovery software company. Nick is based in London.
