Austin, Texas, USA, August 31, 2026
According to The Futurum Group’s “1H 2026 Intelligent Devices Market Sizing & Five-Year Forecast” report, covering the global edge semiconductor market over the CY2025–CY2030 forecast horizon with CY2025 as base year, automotive semiconductor revenue grows from US$41.9B in CY2025 to US$56.6B under the base scenario by CY2030, a 6.2% five-year CAGR. Automotive is one of only three destinations in the Edge Silicon Flow model that register positive growth in all three scenarios: base (6.2%), bull (9.0%), and bear (3.4%). Alongside PC and robotics, automotive provides a structural floor for the edge silicon market regardless of macro conditions.
Figure 1: Automotive Silicon TAM by Scenario — CY2022–2030 (USD Billion)
“Automotive semiconductor demand is architectural, not cyclical. The transition from combustion-era electronics to EV and ADAS platforms is compounding silicon content per vehicle year over year. A conventional ICE vehicle carries approximately US$400 to US$600 in semiconductor content; Tesla and BYD platforms already exceed US$1,000 per vehicle. That structural multiplier does not reverse in a recession.”— Olivier Blanchard, Research Director & Practice Lead, Intelligent Devices, The Futurum Group
The CY2030 automotive forecast highlights several structural features of edge silicon demand:
- Structural certainty across all scenarios: Even the bear case adds US$7.6B in automotive silicon revenue over five years, growing from US$41.9B to US$49.5B at a 3.4% CAGR. Automotive is one of only three destinations that maintain positive growth under all three macro assumptions, alongside PC and robotics.
- Silicon content per vehicle accelerates: Average silicon content per vehicle rises from US$482 in CY2025 to US$598 in the base case by CY2030, driven by ADAS sensor fusion, EV power management, and in-vehicle compute platforms. Bull case content reaches US$628 per vehicle.
- Tesla and BYD are explicit model drivers: Tesla and BYD, now modeled explicitly, represent the highest silicon-per-vehicle intensity in the market. As these platforms scale and mid-market automakers adopt comparable architectures, the EV silicon premium becomes the industry baseline rather than the exception.
Subscribers can read more in the full report, “1H 2026 Intelligent Devices Market Sizing & Five-Year Forecast” on the Futurum Intelligence Platform. Non-subscribers click here for more information. Non-subscribers click here for more information.
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Author Information
Olivier Blanchard is Research Director, Intelligent Devices. He covers edge semiconductors and intelligent AI-capable devices for Futurum. In addition to having co-authored several books about digital transformation and AI with Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman, Blanchard brings considerable experience demystifying new and emerging technologies, advising clients on how best to future-proof their organizations, and helping maximize the positive impacts of technology disruption while mitigating their potentially negative effects. Follow his extended analysis on X and LinkedIn.
