Austin, Texas, USA, October 15, 2025
Futurum Research Reports the AI PC Market Rising From Zero to $25 Billion in 2025 as Enterprises Replace Windows 10 Systems, Marking the Start of a Decade-Long Transformation Toward Intelligent Personal Computing
More than a year after the first Copilot+ PCs launched, the AI PC market is moving from niche adoption to mass-market scale, according to new research from The Futurum Group. Global revenues climbed from nearly zero in early 2024 to about $7 billion by year-end 2024, and are projected to reach $25 billion in 2025, driven by enterprise refresh cycles ahead of Microsoft’s October 2025 Windows 10 end-of-support milestone.
By 2030, the market is expected to hit $124 billion (Base Case), with upside to $350 billion (High) and a conservative floor of $78 billion (Low). Growth is powered by falling NPU costs, expanding on-device AI capabilities such as real-time translation and multimodal productivity, and rapid ecosystem integration across Windows, Office, and OEM hardware.
Figure 1: PC & On-Device AI Adoption 2024 to 2030, Scenario Analysis (*Growth rates normalize with market maturity, though overall revenue keeps expanding)
“This is the most significant shift in the personal-computing landscape in decades,” said Olivier Blanchard, Research Director & Practice Lead, Intelligent Devices at Futurum. “Enterprises are catalyzing the first wave of adoption through 2027, but the true transformation will come later in the decade as affordable AI-capable devices reach every user segment worldwide.”
The report highlights two distinct waves of demand: an enterprise-led surge from 2025 to 2027 as organizations refresh fleets, followed by consumer acceleration after 2027 once sub-$1,000 AI PCs hit the market. By 2030, consumer share is projected to reach ~38% of global revenue. APAC emerges as the largest region by 2030 (~45% share), while North America maintains leadership in early enterprise adoption.
Read more in the Q2 2025 Consumer and Enterprise AI Devices Spot Check Report, on the Futurum Intelligence Platform. For more information, click here for inquiry and access.
About Futurum Intelligence for Market Leaders
Futurum Intelligence’s AI Devices IQ service provides actionable insight from analysts, reports, and interactive visualization datasets, helping leaders drive their organizations through transformation and business growth. Subscribers can log into the platform at https://app.futurumgroup.com/, and non-subscribers can find additional information at Futurum Intelligence.
Follow news and updates from Futurum on X and LinkedIn using #Futurum. Visit the Futurum Newsroom for more information and insights.
Other Insights from Futurum:
Disruptive Outliers Finding Opportunity in the AI Devices Segment – Report Summary
The AI PC Segment’s Glaring Software Problem
Futurum Group Highlights Key AI PC Adoption Trends in Q3 2025 State of the PC Market Report
Author Information
Olivier Blanchard is Research Director, Intelligent Devices. He covers edge semiconductors and intelligent AI-capable devices for Futurum. In addition to having co-authored several books about digital transformation and AI with Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman, Blanchard brings considerable experience demystifying new and emerging technologies, advising clients on how best to future-proof their organizations, and helping maximize the positive impacts of technology disruption while mitigating their potentially negative effects. Follow his extended analysis on X and LinkedIn.
