Analyst(s): Olivier Blanchard
Publication Date: April 16, 2025
Intel’s ability to hit 18A process milestones on time will determine how quickly it can claw back lost market share from rivals AMD and Qualcomm before their gains take root in the long term.
Key Points:
- A recent study by The Futurum Group reveals that only 55.5% of Enterprise IT Decision-Makers consider Intel as their first AI PC processor choice, signaling an erosion of Intel’s market share, favoring alternatives (AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple).
- Intel entered the AI PC segment with a Copilot+ class processor several months behind Qualcomm and AMD, and while the processor is competitive against its rivals, Intel’s ability to provide a Copilot+ class alternative in high-volume price tiers, especially in the commercial segment, continues to be a challenge. 18A could flip the script on Intel’s woes and help the chipmaker regain a competitive advantage in the segment.
- Intel has announced that its 18A process has entered risk production and is on track to deliver Panther Lake AI PC processors as early as late 2025/early 2026. If Intel can stick to this timeline, it could begin to reverse its market share erosion as early as Q4 2025.
Overview:
Intel has long held a dominant position in the PC market, perhaps especially in the commercial segment, where IT departments in the SMB, large, and enterprise-sized businesses alike have traditionally favored its x86 processors. In the last year, two concurrent disruptions in the PC processor status quo threatened to derail Intel’s enviable market advantage however: The first was the expansion of AI-enabled processors from the data center to PCs. The other was the introduction of Arm-based processors, with their Apple-like performance per watt advantages, into the Windows PC ecosystem. At the intersection of these disruptions was the close partnership between Microsoft and Qualcomm and the creation of the leading-edge Copilot+ category of AI PCs.
While Intel was the first PC processor vendor to bring true on-device AI to the PC segment with its Core Ultra Gen 1 (“Meteor Lake”) processors in early 2024, Qualcomm’s new Arm-based Snapdragon X platform leapfrogged over Meteor Lake in late May of the same year, with an NPU capable of delivering impressive 45 TOPS performance and remarkable battery efficiency, which promised all-day (and in some cases multi-day) battery life for Copilot+ PCs. AMD, Intel’s main x86 rival, quickly followed suit with its Ryzen AI 300 processors that delivered 50 TOPS on the NPU and quickly provided a perhaps more IT-friendly x86 alternative to Snapdragon’s Windows-on-Arm option. Intel, uncharacteristically, entered the Copilot+ PC last when it introduced its Core Ultra Gen 2 (“Lunar Lake”) processors in September.
Despite Lunar Lake’s strong debut and the validation of both its design and performance, the damage to Intel’s leadership in the PC space was already done: Intel’s broader challenges, characterized by disappointing quarterly results, significant layoffs, rumors of delays and quality issues with some of its products, and the fact that it had to outsource its Lunar Lake production to TSMC, cast doubt on the chipmaker’s ability to continue maintaining its historical market share on the PC processor segment, particularly given that the field of AI PC processor vendors was now a bit more crowded than it had been, and that both Qualcomm and AMD appeared to have compelling alternatives to Intel’s new AI PC processors.
One of the vectors of inquiry about Intel’s competitive challenge was that if Qualcomm were to capture X% of the PC market share, where would it come from? Would it come from AMD? From Intel? From Apple, perhaps? The follow-up question was, of course, what % of the overall PC market, especially in the middle of the concurrent Windows 11 and AI PC refresh, would Qualcomm manage to capture?
Looking at the second question first, consensus estimates put Qualcomm’s market share of new Copilot+ PC shipments somewhere in the teens. (I had initially settled on 14-16% for 2025.) Reframing the first question, who was most vulnerable to Qualcomm’s AI PC market share grab? As there was little reason to believe it would be AMD, was it Intel?
We started asking (albeit indirectly) this question to roughly 1,000 enterprise IT decision-makers in December 2024, and the signals we got back gave us a glimpse into Intel’s risk in that specific market segment.
When asked, the enterprise ITDMs in our study reported that Intel was indeed their first choice of processor brands for Copilot+ PCs, but only 55.5% ranked Intel as their first choice. This was a surprisingly low number, given that Intel had until then captured a consistent two-thirds to three-quarters share of IT department PC purchases. Suddenly, barely half of ITDMs pointed to Intel as their first choice for AI PCs.
However, a predictable 18.5% of ITDMs pointed to AMD as their first choice, which seemed on par with the kind of pre-AI PC processor preference we would expect (the range falling between 18% and 22% depending on vertical and regional variables). This suggested that while AMD may be looking at a slight loss of market share, it seemed minimal and not particularly significant.
Here is where the signals got interesting: in our study, 14.8% of ITDMs reported that Qualcomm was their first processor choice for AI PCs. And as a footnote, 11.2% pointed to Apple as their first choice.
In other words, the sooner Intel can start shipping Panther Lake chips, the sooner it can stop and perhaps even reverse the current trend of AMD and Qualcomm eating its share of the AI PC market. And so, Intel announced that its 18A process is on track and that it has begun the risk production phase signals to the market that perhaps its market share hemorrhage in the PC market is nearly at an end.
We already expected Panther Lake to start shipping in H1 2026, but the market needed assurances that Intel was indeed on track to deliver on that timeline. Tan checked that box for now, but Intel still has a difficult road ahead: Not only must it scale up on schedule, but it has to do so without any major production or quality assurance hiccups. This is a very tall order for Intel, which has struggled at times with this type of exercise.
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Author Information
Research Director Olivier Blanchard covers edge semiconductors and intelligent AI-capable devices for Futurum. In addition to having co-authored several books about digital transformation and AI with Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman, Blanchard brings considerable experience demystifying new and emerging technologies, advising clients on how best to future-proof their organizations, and helping maximize the positive impacts of technology disruption while mitigating their potentially negative effects. Follow his extended analysis on X and LinkedIn.
