Analyst: FuturumAI
Publication Date: August 11, 2025
The recent 15% export license fee on NVIDIA’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 to China represents a significant policy development in the global AI semiconductor market.
What You Need to Know:
- The Trump administration imposed a 15% fee on licensed exports of NVIDIA’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 AI chips to China.
- NVIDIA posted $26.0B revenue and $6.12 EPS last quarter, driven by AI data center demand.
- AMD reported $5.84B revenue and $0.69 EPS last quarter, with strong MI300 adoption.
- Due to high demand, Futurum Equities expects NVIDIA to pass the fee to Chinese buyers; AMD may also achieve pass-through.
- Policy changes may alter allocation and delivery timelines for global customers.
Recommendations:
To navigate the new policy environment, AI chip buyers and investors should:
- Monitor allocation strategies as China re-enters the demand pool under the license framework.
- Plan procurement timelines to account for possible shifts in delivery schedules.
- Track management commentary on fee pass-through and licensing throughput as key variables for margin impact.
Will NVIDIA and AMD Pass the 15% Fee to Chinese Buyers?
Analyst Take: The recent 15% export license fee on NVIDIA’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 to China represents a significant policy development in the global AI semiconductor market.
While it adds a cost layer, demand for NVIDIA’s AI accelerators in China is so intense that we expect the fee to be fully passed on to buyers without dampening sales.
AMD’s growing credibility with the MI308 suggests it may also succeed in passing along most of the cost.
Both companies stand to benefit from improved capacity planning and global allocation strategies as licensing becomes the new norm.
Bullish factors include strong AI demand in China and pricing power for both NVIDIA and AMD. Risks include potential retaliatory measures and the complexity of license processing.
For more information, visit the NVIDIA newsroom here or AMD’s newsroom here.
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Disclosure: Futurum is a research and advisory firm that engages or has engaged in research, analysis, and advisory services with many technology companies, including those mentioned in this article. The author does not hold any equity positions with any company mentioned in this article.
Analysis and opinions expressed herein are specific to the analyst individually and data and other information that might have been provided for validation, not those of Futurum as a whole.
Other Insights from Futurum:
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