Austin, Texas, USA, April 15, 2025
Futurum Research Points to Erosion in Preference for Intel Processors Among ITDMs as AI PC Refresh Cycle Gains Momentum
Only 55.5% of enterprise ITDMs point to Intel processors as their first choice for AI PCs, according to Futurum, a notable shift from the two-thirds to three-quarters of ITDMs traditionally preferring Intel processors in the past. This shift signals Intel’s vulnerability in these early stages of the segment’s transition to AI-enabled PCs. It opens the door to competitors like AMD, Qualcomm, and even Apple to capture the share potentially lost by Intel as ITDMs turn to alternative options.
Intel has navigated its share of challenges in recent years, culminating in the precipitous exit of CEO Pat Gelsinger in December 2024. None caught the attention of Olivier Blanchard, Research Director and Practice Lead for AI Devices, as much as Intel entering the Copilot+ AI PC ecosystem months after Qualcomm and AMD. “Given Intel’s decades of dominance in the Windows PC space, it was surprising to see Qualcomm and AMD released their Copilot+ class processors ahead of Intel last year. And while Intel’s Core Ultra Gen 2 (“Lunar Lake”) part, dubbed “Lunar Lake,” more than met market expectations when it did finally come out, its late entry opened the door to Qualcomm and AMD capitalizing early on the reset of the PC segment driven by generative and agentic AI.
Intel’s late entry into the segment didn’t just give its competitors a head start. It also further undermined confidence in Intel’s ability to drive innovation with its chip design. In effect, Intel came across as reactive rather than proactive, putting the company on the defensive rather than the offensive. It ceded its leadership role to Qualcomm and AMD—at least for the time being.
To add to Intel’s troubles, its Lunar Lake processors are made by TSMC, making them too expensive for volume price tiers. Thus far, Intel’s temporary reprieve is that AMD and Qualcomm haven’t yet entered the market with Copilot+ class processors for those volume tiers either, but product roadmaps suggest that they will beat Intel to the punch again. This could potentially drive more erosion in Intel’s AI PC processor market share, particularly in the Enterprise.
At its Vision 2025 conference, however, Intel announced that it had entered risk production for its 18A process node. Risk production is a crucial milestone that signals the node has reached the early stages of test manufacturing runs at low volume. Intel’s Kevin O’Buckley, Senior Vice President of Foundry Services at Intel, confirmed the news as part of Intel’s “five nodes in four years” (5N4Y) strategy, originally launched under the leadership of ex-CEO Pat Gelsinger as part of the company’s mission to reset its competitive capabilities against TSMC.
The plan, which had originally been announced in June 2021, hasn’t been without friction. Most notably, Intel found itself forced to scratch high-volume manufacturing of its 20A node to cut costs. But with 18a finally entering the final stages of its pre-production phase, Intel had a positive story with which to help restore confidence after months of uncertainty about Intel’s future.
What is critical to keep in mind about the Vision 2025 18a update is that the timing of Intel’s 5N4Y plan called for the process nodes to be ready for production this year, not for the nodes to have entered final high volume manufacturing (HVM). Now comes the scaling-up of production.
In other words, Intel is generally delivering on its timing for 18a, which could turn out to be the most important aspect of this news, given 1) how quickly Intel needs to restore confidence in its ability to not only survive but thrive in a very competitive, fast-paced, and quickly evolving semiconductor market despite a string of disappointments and resets, and 2) How exposed and vulnerable Intel is as AI-enabled processors in the cloud and at the edge are reshuffling the market share landscape for AI chipmakers. Intel needed to deliver good news about 18a, and so the announcement’s timing means mission accomplished for the Intel team and for incoming CEO Lip-Bu Tan, at least for now.
What comes next, at least with regards to Intel’s AI PC strategy, is Panther Lake – Lunar Lake’s successor – which is wholly dependent on 18A. When it launches, Panther Lake is expected to reset expectations for AI PC processor capabilities. Rumors suggest that Panther Lake could pack up to 16 CPU cores (4 P-cores, 8 E-cores, and 4 LPE-cores), 12 “Xe3” GPU cores, and deliver up to an impressive 180 total TOPS.
If true, and assuming AMD and Qualcomm don’t beat Intel to the punch again between now and Q4 2025, Intel could leverage Panther Lake to leapfrog over its competitors and once again become the innovation leader in the space rather than a follower. The sooner Intel can start shipping Panther Lake chips, the sooner it can reverse the trend that currently has AMD and Qualcomm eating at its market share of the AI PC processor market.
And so, Intel announcing that its 18A process is on track, and that it has begun the risk production phase, signals to the market that perhaps its market share hemorrhage in the PC market is nearly at an end.
Per Blanchard, “We already expected Panther Lake to start shipping in H1 2026, but the market needed assurances that Intel was currently on track to deliver on that timeline. Even with that box checked, Intel has a difficult road ahead: Not only does it need to scale up on schedule, it has to do so without any major production or quality assurance hiccups along the way. This is a very tall order for Intel, which has struggled at times with this type of exercise. Every day that Panther Lake isn’t in the market, driving ITDMs back to Intel is a win for AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple in the expanding AI PC segment.”
Figure 1: Top-Ranked Processor Brands for New AI PC Purchases
It is still too soon to tell where Intel and the market will land, but this is how competition in the AI PC processor space is shaping up for the next 12 months and why Intel’s on-time delivery of 18A is so critical to the recovery of its PC processor business. 55.5% of enterprise ITDMs picking Intel as their first choice still puts the company in the number-one position in the market, but that number should be closer to 70%.
If Intel stumbles, what Futurum’s study reveals is where Intel’s share of the AI PC processor market may be going: While 18.5% of enterprise ITDMS selected AMD as their first choice, Qualcomm’s Snapdragon processor picked up the most gains, capturing 14.8% of ITDM’s for their first choice in under a year. Apple ranked fourth with 11.2%.
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Other Insights from Futurum:
How Intel’s 13-TOPS NPU Might Find Purpose in a World of Copilot+ PCs
Can Intel’s Panther Lake and 18A Process Reset the Chipmaker’s Competitive Position?
Can Lip-Bu Tan’s Engineering-First Vision Get Intel Back on Track?
Author Information
Research Director Olivier Blanchard covers edge semiconductors and intelligent AI-capable devices for Futurum. In addition to having co-authored several books about digital transformation and AI with Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman, Blanchard brings considerable experience demystifying new and emerging technologies, advising clients on how best to future-proof their organizations, and helping maximize the positive impacts of technology disruption while mitigating their potentially negative effects. Follow his extended analysis on X and LinkedIn.
