Analyst(s): Daniel Newman, Ray Wang
Publication Date: August 26, 2025
Wall Street is bracing for another “how did they do it?” quarter from NVIDIA, but make no mistake—this isn’t a coin toss. The evidence points to a company whose momentum is not just sustained, but accelerating. If you think expectations are already high, you haven’t been paying attention to what Blackwell is about to unleash or how sticky NVIDIA’s dominance remains, even in the most strategically fraught markets like China.
Blackwell Mania: The New Engine of Outperformance
Let’s cut to the chase: Blackwell is the catalyst that could push NVIDIA’s story from “dominant” to “untouchable.” Our supply chain research and customer commentary highlight accelerating demand for the B100, B200, and rack-level GB200 solutions. Hyperscaler cloud growth and rising CAPEX through 2025 further reinforce the strength of the Blackwell cycle.
Partners scramble to lock down Blackwell allocations before supply inevitably tightens. Blackwell’s unique architecture—tailored for massive model training and real-time inferencing—has cloud and hyperscale customers increasing their planned purchases, not trimming them.
The “AI digestion” narrative won’t apply to Blackwell. Early evidence shows that organizations not only moved aggressively to secure H100s in 2024 but often bypassed the wait entirely—lining up for Blackwell instead. We have witnessed much clear evidence on this as we see the acceleration of shipments in GB200, and we expect a similar trend later this year for both GB200 and GB300.
Looking ahead, the state-of-the-art Blackwell Ultra (GB300) remains on track to ramp beginning in September, extending NVIDIA’s momentum into the next wave of deployments beyond GB200. We will watch closely not only on NVIDIA’s Blackwell’s performance in Q2, but also any technology and supply chain updates on the upcoming Rubin-series GPU–another “game changer” for NVIDIA to sustain its compute leadership.
For those looking to poke holes, good luck: NVIDIA’s CUDA moat, developer ecosystem, and new software hooks (think NIM and full-stack AI optimization) are proving more challenging than ever to dislodge.
Futurum Intelligence: NVIDIA’s GPU Market Share and AI Chip Dominance Will Hold
Our newly published Futurum Intelligence data makes one thing crystal clear: NVIDIA’s grip on the GPU market is as strong as ever, and GPUs will remain the workhorse of AI for the next several years. The numbers reinforce that GPUs are still the fastest route to value for real-world AI adoption—especially in enterprise and hyperscale data centers. Futurum Intelligence’s latest analysis details that while Broadcom, Marvell, and other custom chipmakers are starting to post impressive growth and will see acceleration later this decade, the GPU—led by NVIDIA—remains the king in enterprise AI buildouts today.
AI infrastructure buyers and decision-makers universally cite time-to-value and ecosystem maturity as core reasons for sticking with NVIDIA. Nothing else delivers at scale for the next few years with this level of support.
The custom silicon crowd may catch up by 2027 or beyond, but for now, NVIDIA GPUs are the gold standard—and our data shows that’s unlikely to shift in the near term.
China: Stickier Than You Think
While regulatory scrutiny and export controls continue to swirl, one thing hasn’t changed: China’s AI and cloud players remain deeply dependent on NVIDIA’s silicon.
The move from H20 to potentially future B30 could serve as another evidence of China’s reliance on NVIDIA’s platform. So far, Chinese hyperscalers show little interest in abandoning NVIDIA’s ecosystem, especially as Blackwell-based alternatives roll out. Once sunk into CUDA, customers rarely migrate; the friction is just too high. In addition, NVIDIA continues to offer industry-leading networking (scale-out and scale-up) solutions to customers–an advantage over most Chinese domestic AI chipmakers.
Our research concurs—expect a sticky, persistent premium for NVIDIA’s products in China, regardless of the export chess game. The company’s head start in software portability and developer loyalty will be nearly impossible to unseat this cycle.
In sum, NVIDIA’s edge over Chinese competitors is undeniable. However, the complexity of the regulatory environment and the volatility of U.S.–China negotiations could complicate its China business. We will be watching closely for Jensen’s comments in the upcoming earnings call on potential new B30 products, regulatory updates from both the U.S. and China, and the company’s broader outlook on the Chinese market.
Networking Revenue Should Not Be Overlooked
While most attention has been paid to NVIDIA’s data center business, the focus has largely been on the “compute” side of the equation. What’s often overlooked is NVIDIA’s growing presence in networking—both in scale-up and scale-out architectures. NVLink and NV Switches enable the company to offer rack-level products with significant compute and memory resources and maintain ultra-low latency. For scale out, NVIDIA leverages InfiniBand and Spectrum Ethernet to interconnect clusters at datacenter scale, positioning itself not just as a chip supplier but as a full-stack infrastructure provider.
The success of its networking system also gradually translates into company revenue, where the company’s revenue from the networking system grew 63% in Q1 2025, reaching nearly 5 billion, a number we expect to grow even further given the increased demand for scale-ups and scale-outs globally for data center buildouts.
Given the significant buildout of data centers and the accelerating deployment of rack-level solutions across its customer base, we expect sustained momentum in NVIDIA’s networking business. With revenue already at roughly $5B in Q1 (a ~$20B run rate), continued double-digit quarterly growth could drive annual networking revenue past $30B within the next year. This will be a key point to watch in NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings.
Bottom line: NVIDIA is positioned to beat expectations this quarter and continue setting the pace in the AI hardware arms race. Blackwell demand is robust, new Futurum Intelligence data highlights the industry’s sustained reliance on GPUs, and China remains firmly within NVIDIA’s orbit. Meanwhile, its networking business is thriving. For investors waiting on the narrative to shift, the wait is likely to be far longer than anticipated.
NVIDIA will release its Q2 earnings on August 27, 2025. See the company’s website for more information.
Disclosure: Futurum is a research and advisory firm that engages or has engaged in research, analysis, and advisory services with many technology companies, including those mentioned in this article. The author does not hold any equity positions with any company mentioned in this article.
Analysis and opinions expressed herein are specific to the analyst individually and data and other information that might have been provided for validation, not those of Futurum as a whole.
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Author Information
Daniel is the CEO of The Futurum Group. Living his life at the intersection of people and technology, Daniel works with the world’s largest technology brands exploring Digital Transformation and how it is influencing the enterprise.
From the leading edge of AI to global technology policy, Daniel makes the connections between business, people and tech that are required for companies to benefit most from their technology investments. Daniel is a top 5 globally ranked industry analyst and his ideas are regularly cited or shared in television appearances by CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal and hundreds of other sites around the world.
A 7x Best-Selling Author including his most recent book “Human/Machine.” Daniel is also a Forbes and MarketWatch (Dow Jones) contributor.
An MBA and Former Graduate Adjunct Faculty, Daniel is an Austin Texas transplant after 40 years in Chicago. His speaking takes him around the world each year as he shares his vision of the role technology will play in our future.
Ray Wang is the Research Director for Semiconductors, Supply Chain, and Emerging Technology at Futurum. His coverage focuses on the global semiconductor industry and frontier technologies. He also advises clients on global compute distribution, deployment, and supply chain. In addition to his main coverage and expertise, Wang also specializes in global technology policy, supply chain dynamics, and U.S.-China relations.
He has been quoted or interviewed regularly by leading media outlets across the globe, including CNBC, CNN, MarketWatch, Nikkei Asia, South China Morning Post, Business Insider, Science, Al Jazeera, Fast Company, and TaiwanPlus.
Prior to joining Futurum, Wang worked as an independent semiconductor and technology analyst, advising technology firms and institutional investors on industry development, regulations, and geopolitics. He also held positions at leading consulting firms and think tanks in Washington, D.C., including DGA–Albright Stonebridge Group, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
