Analyst(s): Futurum Research
Publication Date: January 30, 2026
ASML’s Q4 FY 2025 results featured record quarterly bookings and a strengthened backlog as AI infrastructure demand expanded across foundry and memory. Management emphasized customer fab readiness, EUV/DUV mix, and installed base upgrades as key determinants of near-term delivery and margin cadence.
What is Covered in this Article:
- ASML’s Q4 FY 2025 financial results
- EUV roadmap, DRAM 4F², and layer growth
- DUV/immersion mix, upgrades, and margins
- Backlog timing, capacity, and H2 weighting
- Guidance and Final Thoughts
The News: ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) reported Q4 FY 2025 and full-year results. Q4 FY 2025 revenue was €9.7B (+5% year-on-year or YoY) versus consensus of €9.6B. Net system sales were €7.6B (+40.9% YoY), and Installed Base Management (service and field options) sales were €2.1B, up by 8.8% YoY. Operating profit was €3.4B (+2.2% YoY) with operating margin at 35.3% versus 36.2% in Q4 FY 2024. Net income was €2.8B (+5.5% YoY) and diluted earnings per share (EPS) was €7.34, up 5.5% and 7.3% YoY, respectively.
“In the last months, many of our customers have shared a notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation, primarily based on more robust expectations of the sustainability of AI-related demand. This is reflected in a marked step-up in their medium-term capacity plans and in our record order intake,” said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet. “We expect FY 2026 to be another growth year for ASML’s business, largely driven by a significant increase in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) sales and growth in our installed base business sales.”
ASML Q4 FY 2025 Earnings: Record Orders, Capacity Execution in Focus
Analyst Take: Record Q4 FY 2025 orders and a €38.8B backlog signal multi-year visibility anchored in AI infrastructure demand across leading-edge logic and Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM). Management underscored that near-term execution hinges on two constraints: customer fab readiness and ASML’s own throughput ramp, with the second half of FY 2026 modeled stronger than the first. EUV layer counts in both logic and DRAM remain on an upward trajectory, while 4F² structures in DRAM point to higher lithography intensity, reducing concerns about an EUV “cliff.” Mix dynamics matter in FY 2026: immersion supply constraints and higher drive tools temper gross margin, while installed base upgrades emerge as a key swing factor.
EUV Momentum, DRAM 4F², and Layer Trajectory
Management reiterated that DRAM’s transition to 4F² structures raises lithography complexity and, in turn, increases both immersion and EUV layer counts. Customers aim to avoid abrupt “cliffs” and prefer smoother EUV insertion across nodes, using EUV to simplify process steps, shorten cycle times, and expand effective capacity. In logic, ASML expects EUV layers to increase again at A14 and more notably at A10, supporting ongoing EUV intensity across advanced nodes. Q4 bookings included €7.4B of EUV, and management expects EUV unit volumes to step up in FY 2026, with a more favorable low-Numerical Aperture (NA) EUV mix expected by FY 2027 as 3800-series systems dominate. High-NA EUV revenue recognition in FY 2026 should be modestly above FY 2025, reflecting steady progress through staged adoption phases. Collectively, these dynamics reinforce EUV’s centrality to leading-edge scaling over the next several nodes.
DUV/Immersion Mix, Installed Base Upgrades, and Margins
ASML expects Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) to be flat in FY 2026, with China down to roughly 20% of revenue and non-China DUV rebounding after FY 2025’s softness. Immersion supply is the limiting factor for FY 2026, not demand, while drive tools (KrF/ArF dry) are set to rise off a low FY 2025 base. This mix is a near-term headwind to gross margin, which is further influenced by a greater presence of 3600-series EUV tools in FY 2026 versus FY 2025. On the positive side, a higher number of EUV tools is margin accretive, and installed base upgrade demand is positioned as a key swing factor given customers’ appetite for capacity adds. Management indicated upgrade momentum strengthened late in FY 2025 and could continue through FY 2026 as fabs ramp. Net, margin cadence in FY 2026 will be largely mix- and upgrade-driven, with EUV volume a constructive offset.
Backlog Timing, Capacity Execution, and H2 Weighting
The company stated that supply will not constrain FY 2026 deliveries, and there is “plenty of time” to address FY 2027 demand. The lion’s share of Q4 bookings is slated for FY 2027, with FY 2026 shipments skewed to the second half as customer cleanroom readiness and ASML’s move-rate ramp progress. Management highlighted the role of long lead-time components in compressing response times and enabling flexible capacity alignment with customer schedules. While investors questioned ASML’s ability to scale quickly enough, the company emphasized joint planning with suppliers and customers to synchronize ramps. China’s share of net system sales was 36% in Q4, with full-year modeling at roughly 20% of revenue going forward. Overall, execution against backlog and H2 weighting appear tied most closely to customer fab timelines and ASML’s ongoing throughput improvements.
Guidance and Final Thoughts
ASML guided FY 2026 revenue to €34.0–€39.0B (consensus estimate: €35.2B) with gross margin of 51%–53%, and Q1 FY 2026 revenue to €8.2–€8.9B with gross margin of 51%–53%. Management flagged installed base upgrades as a material margin swing factor, with immersion supply and higher drive tools tempering mix near term. The company plans to streamline Technology and IT organizations with approximately 1,700 role reductions (~4%) to increase engineering focus and reduce organizational complexity. The FY 2025 dividend is proposed at €7.50 per share, and a new share repurchase authorization of up to €12.0B runs through FY 2028. ASML will prioritize EUV scaling, incremental High-NA insertion, and installed base expansion to support multi-year AI infrastructure buildouts into 2027–2028. Overall, ASML enters FY 2026 with multi-year demand visibility intact, with near-term results driven by mix and upgrade timing, while rising EUV intensity and disciplined capacity execution underpin a structurally stronger earnings trajectory into FY 2027–2028.
See the full press release on ASML’s Q4 FY 2025 financial results on ASML’s website.
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