Austin, Texas, USA, May 16, 2025
Futurum’s 2Q 2025 State of the Market Report for Semiconductors Shows the Market Is on Track To Reach $1 Trillion by 2032
Analysis of World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) monthly revenue data provides critical insights about the semiconductor market size and growth trends.
A clear upward inflection in market size can be seen from 2015 onward, confirmed by comparing the 10-year CAGRs leading up to and following that year. The 10-year CAGR between 2005 and 2015 is calculated at 4.0% compared to 7.3% from 2015 to 2025. The 20-year CAGR covering the period 2005 through 2025 works out at 5.6%.
This 6% long-term growth figure has led many semiconductor market forecasters to predict that annual semiconductor sales will exceed $1 trillion within a few years. As shown in Figure 1, this milestone can be reached by 2032 or thereabouts.
Figure 1: Semiconductor Revenue Forecast (2024 to 2032)
Richard Gordon, Vice President & Practice Lead for Semiconductors at Futurum, said, “It has long been argued that as Moore’s Law slowed down (and so, too, the pace of innovation), so would the long-term growth rate of industry. It is certainly true that the CAGR of the industry has fallen over the decades, from double-digit growth in the 1990s to mid-single-digits more recently. This trend is perhaps not surprising as the industry increased in size. However, what is surprising is that the decline in long-term growth has stabilized and begun trending upward during the past decade, converging at approximately 6% by 2024.”
Key points from the analysis of WSTS data:
- The semiconductor market’s revenue reached a record $630.5 billion in 2024, growing by 19.7% from $526.9 billion in 2023.
- However, the market remains highly volatile, characterised by three to four years of industry cycles where annual growth can swing between ±20%.
- Despite this year-to-year volatility, the semiconductor market’s long-term growth rate, which was declining as the industry expanded, stabilized and began trending upward during the past decade.
- In the short term, following the strong growth in 2024, current trends suggest annual growth of 14.2% for 2025, putting the market size at $720.1 billion. However, whether and to what extent the unprecedented boom in Data Center spending on AI infrastructure build-out continues through 2025 calls for lower and upper forecast scenarios of 7.9% and 22.6% growth, respectively.
- A long-term annual growth rate (AGR) of 6% suggests a market size of $1 trillion by 2032 is likely.
Despite the cyclical nature of the semiconductor market, the industry has consistently invested in the technology roadmap over time, which has led to continual innovation and resulted in a steady stream of semiconductor products with lower cost and higher performance. These chip design and manufacturing innovations have opened up new market opportunities based on semiconductor technology and fuelled long-term industry growth.
Read more in the “State of the Market Report: Semiconductors, Q2 2025” on the Futurum Intelligence Platform.
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Other insights from Futurum:
Intel Delivers Flat Q1 FY 2025 Revenue Amid Ongoing Turnaround Efforts
U.S. Geopolitics Will Speed Up Semiconductor Supply Chain Deglobalization
Top 10 Semiconductor Companies Grabbed 67% Market Share in 2024
Author Information
Richard Gordon is Vice President & Practice Lead, Semiconductors for The Futurum Group. He has been involved in the semiconductor industry for more than 30 years, first in engineering and then in technology and market research, industry analysis, and business advisory.
For many years, Richard led Gartner's Semiconductor and Electronics practice, building a 20-person global team covering all aspects of semiconductor industry research, from manufacturing to chip markets and end applications. Having served on Gartner's Senior Research Board and as Gartner's Chief Forecaster, Richard has extensive experience in developing and implementing methodologies for market sizing, share and forecasting, to deliver data, analysis and insights about the competitive landscape, technology roadmaps, and market growth drivers.
Richard is a sought-after technology industry analyst, both as a trusted advisor to clients and also as an expert commentator speaking at industry events and appearing on live TV shows such as CNBC.
