Austin, Texas, USA, July 31, 2025
The Slow Pace of On-Device AI Application Availability Drives the Majority of Enterprises’ New AI PC Purchases Towards Mid-Range Systems
“The vast majority of AI PC shipments going into Q4 2025 continue to prioritize mid-range pricing and sub-Copilot+ performance,” said Olivier Blanchard, Intelligent Edge and AI Devices Practice Lead at Futurum. “PC buyers are sold on the value proposition of AI-capable PCs, but as front-end AI experiences continue to be mostly cloud-based rather than delivered on-device, most of the market still feels little pressure to pay premium pricing for full Copilot+ PC specs. Systems with 20-40 TOPS on the NPU can easily run most popular cloud-based AI assistant experiences, and so long as AI applications like ChatGPT and Gemini can be accessed through a browser, that seems good enough.”
The report, which looks at preliminary PC shipment data from Futurum’s upcoming Intelligent Devices market forecast, further reveals that enterprise buyers prioritize AI PC specs and price points aimed at users who access cloud-based, agentic, and AI features primarily through their browser or a network connection. In the absence of compelling on-device agentic and AI-assistant solutions, PCs that deliver less than 40 TOPS (trillions of operations per second) on the NPU could continue to be the dominant PC category well into 2027, which could spell trouble for the more capable Windows 11 Copilot+ category.
Figure 1: AI PC Adoption Forecast: Breakdown by NPU TOPS
“The value-to-price equation continues to point to a clear sweet spot for the majority of the AI PC market,” noted Blanchard. “While one in four PC buyers prioritizes performance and premium experiences in the higher price bands, a full 75% of PC buyers are satisfied with ‘good enough.’ This means that, so long as AI assistant and agentic features remain cloud-based, the incentive to invest in premium-priced, cutting-edge AI PCs will be low for the majority of PC buyers.”
Furthermore, adoption parity between AI PCs capable of delivering fewer than 40 TOPS on the NPU and AI PCs capable of delivering 40 TOPS or more on the NPU may not happen until 2027, signaling that Copilot+ class PCs have some ways yet to go before becoming the dominant adoption driver for AI PCs. Mid-range AI PCs currently delivering 20-39 TOPS on the NPU will continue to lead the current PC refresh cycle’s transition to AI-capable PCs.
Read more in the full report, “State of the Market Report: Intelligent Devices, Q3 2025” on the Futurum Intelligence Platform.
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Other insights from Futurum:
Futurum Study: 62% of AI PC Adoption Supports Efforts To Futureproof Organizations For AI
Why 18A Can’t Come Too Soon for Intel’s AI PC Processor Business – Report Summary
Unpacking the Benefits of AI PCs – Six Five On The Road
Author Information
Olivier Blanchard is Research Director, Intelligent Devices. He covers edge semiconductors and intelligent AI-capable devices for Futurum. In addition to having co-authored several books about digital transformation and AI with Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman, Blanchard brings considerable experience demystifying new and emerging technologies, advising clients on how best to future-proof their organizations, and helping maximize the positive impacts of technology disruption while mitigating their potentially negative effects. Follow his extended analysis on X and LinkedIn.
