Analyst(s): Nick Patience
Publication Date: November 19, 2024
The landscape of AI foundation models has evolved dramatically since ChatGPT’s launch, with OpenAI leading at a $157bn valuation while both tech giants and specialized companies compete for market share. While new AI startups continue to attract massive investments, some companies are pivoting away from pure model development, suggesting that future success requires both strong foundation models and practical applications rather than just focusing on model development alone.
Key Points:
- OpenAI dominates the foundation model market with a $157bn valuation and recent $6.6bn funding round, though its November 2023 leadership crisis highlighted cultural challenges in AI companies.
- Despite the high cost of building language models, new AI startups continue to attract massive investments – including Safe SuperIntelligence’s $1bn seed round and WorldLabs’ $230m raise – while some established players such as Aleph Alpha and Character.ai are pivoting away from model development.
- There’s a growing convergence between model providers and applications, with companies such as OpenAI moving into search and Mistral developing Le Chat, suggesting future success requires both strong foundation models and practical applications rather than focusing solely on model development.
Overview:
The AI foundation model landscape has transformed dramatically since ChatGPT’s launch. OpenAI has emerged as the market leader, securing a $157bn valuation and recently closing a record $6.6bn funding round, with Microsoft as a key strategic partner. However, the industry seems unlikely to be dominated by a single player.
The field includes traditional tech giants such as AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, IBM, and NVIDIA, alongside specialized companies. OpenAI leads the specialist segment despite facing governance challenges in late 2023. Anthropic has recently enhanced its Claude model with computer interaction capabilities, while AI21 Labs has pivoted from consumer markets to enterprise solutions with its new Jamba models. Cohere AI maintains an enterprise focus, specializing in retrieval augmented generation, and Meta leads open-source model development. French startup Mistral has gained significant traction with its efficient models, while Elon Musk’s xAI has launched its Grok-2 model.
The sector continues to attract new entrants with substantial funding. Safe SuperIntelligence, founded by OpenAI’s Ilya Sutskever, secured a remarkable $1bn in funding. WorldLabs, started by Fei-Fei Li, raised $230m for developing spatially aware models, while Eric Schmidt’s Magic AI attracted $320m for code generation technology.
However, not all companies have maintained their initial focus on foundation models. Aleph Alpha has shifted to developing sovereign AI tools, while Character.ai has moved to focus on chatbots, with key team members joining Google’s DeepMind. Inflection, after Microsoft acquired talent and licensed its models, has redirected its efforts toward its chatbot Pi and RPA solutions.
The industry is witnessing an interesting convergence between model providers and applications. OpenAI is expanding into search with ChatGPT and its Chat.com acquisition, while Mistral develops Le Chat. Companies such as Perplexity AI demonstrate the significant market value in building applications on top of foundation models, as evidenced by their reported pursuit of $500m funding at an $8bn valuation. This evolution suggests that future success in the AI industry may depend on both model development and practical applications, rather than solely focusing on foundation models.
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Disclosure: The Futurum Group is a research and advisory firm that engages or has engaged in research, analysis, and advisory services with many technology companies, including those mentioned in this article. The author does not hold any equity positions with any company mentioned in this article.
Analysis and opinions expressed herein are specific to the analyst individually and data and other information that might have been provided for validation, not those of The Futurum Group as a whole.
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Author Information
Nick is VP and Practice Lead for AI at The Futurum Group. Nick is a thought leader on the development, deployment and adoption of AI - an area he has been researching for 25 years. Prior to Futurum, Nick was a Managing Analyst with S&P Global Market Intelligence, with responsibility for 451 Research’s coverage of Data, AI, Analytics, Information Security and Risk. Nick became part of S&P Global through its 2019 acquisition of 451 Research, a pioneering analyst firm Nick co-founded in 1999. He is a sought-after speaker and advisor, known for his expertise in the drivers of AI adoption, industry use cases, and the infrastructure behind its development and deployment. Nick also spent three years as a product marketing lead at Recommind (now part of OpenText), a machine learning-driven eDiscovery software company. Nick is based in London.
